political experts have told The Royal Gazette .

The date of the vote is still anyone's guess, but Premier the Hon. Sir John Swan must call an election within the next ten months.

As the United Bermuda Party strives to strengthen its majority and the Progressive Labour Party hopes to win power for the first time, seasoned observers said the election will be won or lost in: St. George's North, where the work of PLP Shadow Education Minister Miss Jennifer Smith has raised the possibility of her success leading to double Opposition victory in the former UBP stronghold; Hamilton West, where PLP incumbents Mr. Julian Hall MP and Eugene Blakeney MP enjoy national profiles but are criticised for skimping on constituency work; Pembroke West Central, where UBP organisers hope to retrieve once-safe turf from Independent MP Mr. Stuart Hayward; Warwick East, where embattled Education Minister the Hon. Gerald Simons is seen fighting for his political life; and Hamilton East where National Liberal Party leader Mr. Gilbert Darrell may be hard-pressed to defend his 27-vote margin of victory.

In all five, "the votes will be close,'' a UBP observer said.

The looming election poses a critical test for all three parties.

For the long-governing UBP, stung by losses suffered in 1989, the election is more than a judgment on its management of the economy during a recession and its handling of tourism, crime, and other national issues.

It also will answer whether a UBP Government that admitted its faults four years ago has since been seen to change its style.

"The message we received was to listen more, communicate better, and bring about a broader consensus in our decision-making,'' Sir John said in the wake of the 1989 vote that saw the UBP's popular support fall to 50.05 percent from 62 percent and its seats in the House of Assembly fall to 23 from 31.

Government Leader in the Senate, the Hon. Michael Winfield, points to public consultation on a wide range of important issues over the last four years.

"The electorate wants to be involved,'' he said. "That message was received and has been responded to.'' For the PLP, which points to the furore over education cuts to show the message voters sent the UBP fell on deaf ears, the vote will help determine whether it has shaken its image as a party too inept and inexperienced to govern.

"We're going in this to form the Government,'' PLP campaign co-chairman Sen.

Alex Scott said. "In previous elections some would say we should try to become a stronger Opposition, a better Opposition, but nobody is thinking like that now.

"If we get less than 20 seats plus one, we'll be sorely disappointed.'' For the NLP, the question is a fundamental one of survival. As it enters its third campaign with only one sitting MP, the NLP is forced to consider its own annihilation. Mr. Graeme Outerbridge, outgoing chairman of the NLP, said: "If we get shut out, we'll have to cross that bridge when we come to it.

"It would be a defining moment for us.'' While both major parties are tightlipped about their polling, both the UBP and PLP acknowledge that some sitting MPs are threatened.

A wild card in the equation is the lowering of the voting age to 18 from 21, which means a sizeable block of Bermudians between the ages of 18 and 24 will have the right to cast ballots for the first time.

But experience in other countries suggests that turn-out among the newly enfranchised is often low and their votes were rarely a deciding factor, experts said.

As for the timing of the vote, the fact the Premier plans to be off the Island frequently in the coming month supports the view the vote will come later, rather than sooner.

"I personally don't think that we're going to be in an election mode for some time,'' one key UBP member said. Spotlight on St. George's North -- Page 5.