When Bob Richards rises in the House of Assembly this morning to deliver his Budget statement, he will be seeking to increase revenue and trim spending as the battle against the deficit continues. Indeed, with gross debt outstanding of more than $2.3?billion hanging over the Bermuda Government, it is inconceivable that he would do anything else.

Bermuda’s fiscal situation remains perilous, but any moves that would add strain on an economy in fragile recovery after emerging from six years of recession also carry a high level of risk. The finance minister will indeed be walking a fiscal tightrope.

It is against this backdrop that the Government announced its “Pathway to Status” plans, which would give residency rights to foreigners who had lived here for more than 15 years, and the opportunity to apply for Bermudian status for those who had been here more than 20 years.

Those who support the proposal say it brings Bermuda in line with international immigration standards and will help to keep valuable residents on island. Those against argue that the policy will disadvantage Bermudians in the labour market and is designed to gain electoral votes for the governing One Bermuda Alliance.

It is the political and racial rhetoric, laced with heady claims of “floodgates” being opened and sinister plans to “whiten” the population that generate a good deal of heat in public discussion on this issue. But some cool-headed consideration of the economic angle is necessary if one really wants to work out whether this policy would benefit Bermuda and Bermudians.

Denying long-term residents residency and status rights will encourage or require them to leave. As a result, would Bermudians stand more chance of getting a good job? Would it boost the opportunities for bright young Bermudians looking to embark on an exciting career? Would it help to grow the economy?

The logical answers are no, no and, definitely, no.

Some would argue that when an expatriate leaves, it creates an opportunity for a Bermudian to take his or her job. However, that’s not what happens in practice, certainly as far as the big picture would suggest. The island has experienced a large-scale case study in recent years, with thousands of expatriates having left. According to government statistics, there were 13,033 jobs held by non-Bermudians back in 2008. That had fallen to 9,642 by 2014 — meaning 3,391 fewer foreign job holders.

That did not translate into more jobs for Bermudians, however. Far from it. Over the same period, the number of jobs held by Bermudians slumped to 23,833 — a fall of 3,347 over six years.

In other words, for every expatriate job that went, one Bermudian job went, too.

One of the reasons for this is that when population falls, demand for all manner of goods and services shrinks. This does not benefit Bermudians, whether they are property owners relying on rental income, landscapers, hairdressers, restaurateurs, lawyers, taxi drivers, accountants, roofing contractors, florists, nannies, secretaries, mechanics — pretty much anyone who makes a living from employment, in fact.

Public sector workers are not immune from this impact. People leaving translates into government revenues lost.

The payroll tax alone generated by one highly paid executive, for example, contributes more than the average salary of a civil servant. The loss of scores of executives in recent years has hit the Government in the pocket.

When demand falls, who are the first to suffer? Simple logic suggests that it will be the lowest earners: the store assistant will lose his livelihood before the store owner; the trainee accountant before the partner in the firm; the farm labourer before the farmer.

So it defies economic logic to argue that a policy proposal that would encourage more people to stay here would disadvantage those on the bottom rungs of the income ladder.

Another economic angle to the story is the issue of why more than 600 people have been here more than 15 years without residency rights. The logical answer in many cases would be that, according to the Department of Immigration under successive governments of different political persuasions, they fill a role for which suitably qualified Bermudians could not be found.

The engine room of Bermuda’s economy is specialist expertise. Intellectual capital is to Bermuda what oil is to Saudi Arabia. In an increasingly knowledge-based global economy, this gives Bermuda a crucial competitive advantage. Guest workers have played a key role in accumulating this talent pool, particularly in the insurance industry. And their presence helps to nurture home-grown talent.

The immigration reforms proposed would help to maintain these capable people, the flow of business they bring to the island and the jobs they create and support. People should not be treated like second-class citizens when they have contributed so much to the island for so long. Why not give them a reason to further commit to Bermuda?

We’ve seen the pain that population decline has inflicted on Bermudians, in the form of unemployment and foreclosures, businesses folding and our public debt soaring. The bottom line is that our attitudes on immigration have to change if we want to at least maintain our standard of living.