Bermuda’s debt: compromise must be an option
Mark Twain’s aphorism about never putting off till tomorrow what you can do the day after tomorrow was intended as a sardonic rebuke to the chronically tardy, not a rallying cry.
But Bermuda seems to have other ideas.
Long the author’s second home, the Island has embraced this celebrated gibe by one of its favourite adopted sons as its motto in the stalemated and increasingly polarised debate on how to introduce genuine efficiencies and savings to our public finances.
We continue to endlessly postpone the hard but unavoidable decisions we have to make when it comes to reconciling ever-increasing public sector expenditures with stagnant revenues.
We continue to engage in more and more borrowing and deficit-spending to close budget gaps, attempting to persuade ourselves that cosmetic cost-cutting exercises such as axing the Agricultural Exhibition are the same thing as making real economies.
Too many of us continue to be selectively and self-righteously deaf to all warnings about the inevitable, long-term consequences of such delaying tactics.
Seven years into a period of unprecedented contraction and recessionary conditions, Bermuda’s economy continues to be marked by anaemic growth, stubbornly high pockets of unemployment and underemployment, and tepid investor confidence in the Island.
Certainly some green shoots of new growth are beginning to emerge and the America’s Cup and associated activities will only further strengthen the Bermuda economy.
But the road to a full recovery remains a very long one indeed.
Until our key economic indicators routinely start to fall outside the margin of error, until such a still-elusive recovery begins to take on an irresistible momentum of its own, Bermuda has no choice but to learn to live within its straitened means.
While a sensible upper limit on government borrowing means the likelihood of a runaway public debt spiral in Bermuda remains remote, the possibility of such a Greek or Puerto Rican-style economic disaster is now somewhat less remote than was once the case.
Recall that Bermuda’s finance ministry borrowed $800 million from the international money markets in 2013 to cover anticipated budget shortfalls through 2016-17.
But this year the Bermuda Government admitted it was going through the funds faster than had been anticipated and would likely have to seek another infusion from the international capital markets before the end of 2015.
To this end, the Finance Minister put in place the facility to borrow an additional $200 million this month, placing the Government within striking distance of its self-imposed credit limit.
As the minister told the House of Assembly: “When this facility is fully drawn, gross debt will stand at $2.385 billion. This level of debt for an economy the size of Bermuda is not only unsustainable, but also, as mentioned in the Budget Statement, is the biggest risk to Bermuda’s financial independence and the welfare of all sectors and all people in this Island.
“Therefore, it is critically important that Government continues to aggressively reduce the deficit and start paying down on our debt.”
Unless we actually do start reducing the deficit and paying down this debt, the only option open to this or any other administration would be to raise the debt ceiling.
Such a move would immediately lower Bermuda’s credit rating, increase the costs of borrowing and debt-servicing and lock the Island into a cycle of dependence on international financial markets. This situation could only end with outside authorities or agencies forcing the necessary structural and economic policy changes on Bermuda we have so far proved unwilling to make ourselves, marking an end — as the minister said — to our vaunted financial independence.
Public sector wage and benefit packages are among the largest cost items in the Government’s Budget. Yet throughout interminable talks with the public sector unions in recent years, the Government keeps rediscovering that compromise is apparently still not an option for the Island’s white-collar workers.
Even relatively minor matters such as furlough days have proved sufficient to trigger large-scale walkouts and heated street protests in the recent past. So it’s clear the entirely more problematic issues of salaries and pensions remain completely non-negotiable as far as the unions are concerned.
But equally incontestable is that the status quo cannot be maintained indefinitely.
At the moment, both the Government and the unions’ leadership may still be able to rescue some element of choice from the increasing pressure of circumstances if they were to negotiate in good faith and demonstrate reciprocal goodwill. But the opportunity for them to do so is diminishing by the day.
Frankly, we literally can no longer afford to put off for even another hour those tough fiscal choices that should have been made long before now.