Bermuda is likely to emerge from recession this year, according to projections by the Ministry of Finance.

Analysts from the Ministry estimate that the economy will grow by up to 1.5 per cent next year.

In the outlook section of The National Economic Report of Bermuda 2014, published yesterday, the Ministry pins its growth hopes on hotel developments, the broad impact of the America’s Cup, and the efforts of the Bermuda Tourism Authority (BTA) and the Bermuda Business Development Agency (BDA) to bring visitors and international business to the Island.

Gross domestic product figures are not yet available for 2014, but the Ministry estimates that the economy contracted by between zero and 1.5 per cent last year, which means the Island endured a sixth successive year of recession in real terms, that is when inflation is taken into account.

The report quotes preliminary data from the 2014 Employment Survey, which shows the Island lost 790 jobs last year, representing a 2.3 per cent fall in the number of jobs. “Throughout the current recession, the loss of jobs in the economy is one of the chief contributing factors preventing economic recovery,” the report states. “The Island has lost 6,726 jobs since 2008 when employment levels were at their peak of 40,213.

The 33,487 jobs recorded in 2014 were 16.7 per cent less than the 2008 figures.”

Bucking the trend last year was the international business sector, which added 161 jobs for a total of 3,929 jobs, representing a 4.3 per cent increase over 2013. Bermuda lost 221 construction jobs last year — continuing a downward trend that the report expects to be reversed this year — leaving the industry with 1,922 jobs, 10.3 per cent fewer than in 2013.

The financial intermediation sector, which includes the banking industry, shed 301 jobs, representing a 12.1 per cent decline. The business services segment had 106 fewer positions.

The unemployment rate rose to 9 per cent in 2014 from 7 per cent in 2013.

“The lower levels of employment and the corresponding loss of expatriate workers who leave the Island when their employment is terminated will continue to weigh heavily on household consumption and retail sales,” the report added.

The selection of Bermuda as host nation for the 2017 America’s Cup is described as “one of the most significant economically beneficial events in the history of Bermuda”, benefiting the economy from an additional $250 million of spending over three years.

New jobs and investment starting this year and during the run-up to the event represent “a major stimulus”.

“Practically all sectors of the economy will benefit, including hotels and restaurants, transport services from taxis to ferries, construction, wholesale and retail, small businesses and real estate, telecommunications providers and opportunities for Bermudians to rent their homes and apartments,” the report states. To back its case for a return to growth, the report also cites ongoing or pending work at numerous hotel developments, including the Hamilton Princess, South Beach in Southampton, Ariel Sands, Pink Beach, Morgan’s Point, Grand Atlantic and St George’s.

The report also anticipates positive results from the BTA this year.

“With the insight of new business intelligence on our target visitors, better marketing strategies and a newly established competitive set, the BTA is well positioned to grow air arrivals in 2015,” the report states.

In international business, the Ministry mentions the BDA’s efforts to boost re/insurance and asset management business. “In the Trust and Private Client sector, the top priorities for the BDA are to significantly raise Bermuda’s profile in the US, UK and Switzerland, and start work on Asia.”

The reports adds that the BDA will lead efforts to diversify the economy by attracting life science/biotech and Canadian e-commerce business.

“The latest business and consumer sentiment surveys suggest opportunities for increased employment and rising income,” the report states.

“Also, the global economic environment is favourable, mainly because of the robustness of the US economy, which has re-established itself as the economic growth engine of the world. Taking all the information into account, the prospects for GDP growth look favourable.”