Log In

Reset Password
BERMUDA | RSS PODCAST

The demographic time bomb’s lethal effects

First Prev 1 2 Next Last
Sir John Swan

What’s called “the demographic time bomb” in geopolitical circles has long-since detonated in Bermuda.

We are contending with the direct and collateral damage on a daily basis.

Simply put, Bermuda’s population was decimated as a consequence of the economic contraction which began in 2007/8.

And our dwindling numbers are now so reduced they pose what amounts to an existential threat to our future.

Stripped of all the pompous psychological and philosophical associations that word has taken on in recent years, this means the Island’s diminished demographics present an imminent danger to our very existence.

A population that has continued to shrink in direct ratio to our economy in recent years poses numerous ongoing difficulties for the Island, not all of them quantifiable in ways which can be easily demonstrated on graphs and pie charts.

In general terms, though, the violent disruptions Bermuda‘s demographics have experienced over the last six years has reduced the population by somewhere in the region of ten to 12 per cent from its early 21st century peak.

Thousands of guest workers left the Island as the worldwide recession took its grim toll on international businesses based here. But some purely domestic factors, short-sighted Immigration policies and tax hikes in particular, also contributed to the massive exodus.

There was an inevitable spill-over into businesses directly or indirectly dependent on the international sector, so outfits ranging from accountancy firms to supermarkets shed staff as well. Many other businesses shut down.

So the outflow of people continued.

And it wasn’t just those on work permits who were packing their bags. Countless Bermudians decided to seek greener pastures abroad once it became clear that employment opportunities, job security and the possibility of upward mobility were all fast becoming as scarce as cahow’s teeth around here.

A good portion of the younger Bermudians who left were those we could least afford to lose.

Bright, industrious and ambitious, their departure constituted a “brain drain” for Bermuda. So not only was the flower of the current generation uprooted but the mothers and fathers of the ones to follow were also removed from the demographics equation, massively compounding the impact of what had been a pre-existing trend for smaller families.

And now the Bermudian birth rate is declining.

All the while the costs of administering the Bermuda infrastructure continue to rise while the tax base which provides the revenues is shrinking.

Our ageing population is obviously in ever increasing need of health and social care and other services provided by Government, adding incremental new strains to our already overburdened public finances on a daily basis.

Deficit spending is the abnormal new norm in modern Bermuda but we can no longer ignore the risks and consequences associated with unlimited borrowing.

Meanwhile the gold-plated pension packages of public sector retirees as well as current white- and blue-collar Government workers — fully one-fith of Bermuda’s total labour force — remain fully protected from cuts.

And despite a growing multi-billion dollar shortfall between what’s being paid out and what’s actually in the pension fund, Government and the public sector unions have made absolutely no headway on restructuring these handsome benefits packages.

Facing underemployment, massive unfunded public sector pensions, runaway Budget debts — as well as the prospect of getting stuck picking up the tab for all of this — it isn’t hard to imagine a continuing flight for the exit door among younger Bermudians.

So growing the population is not just critical to growing the economy but to Bermuda‘s very viability.

As has so often been the case of late, former Premier Sir John Swan put it best when he said this week we must accept the simple reality we are not a resources-rich country but a service economy and proceed from there.

A service-based economy is predicated on “what individuals do to provide an income for the country and the people living here.

“We need to recognise that … we succeeded when we had that level of economic activity as a result of services provided. That enhanced our economy for both the private and public sector.

“To do that now, we need, as the speaker said, an influx of people. But more importantly, we need an influx of products and an influx of capital.”

As the former Premier added: “… We need to bring in companies and start to reduce the cost of goods in Bermuda, since it seems much harder to reduce the cost of labour. This is the only thing we can do now if we want to get Bermudians back in employment again. That’s going to start reducing our debt and pay for the services that the public has become accustomed to.”

He’s right, of course. And it’s the only option which will allow us to defuse a second time-bomb which is now ticking away at the foundations of our society, one which could topple the whole edifice built atop it.

An aerial view of the former Sonesta Beach Hotel.