THE first paragraph of the lead story of , dated August 17, 1995, said it all: "Bermudians gave an emphatic 'no' to Independence yesterday."

The ballot figures told a story of reluctance to break constitutional ties with Britain that stretched back nearly four centuries.

But they also reflected a significant element that would not be a factor in a similar vote today ? the PLP had campaigned for its supporters to abstain.

Of the 22,236 people who voted, 16,369 (73.7 per cent) said 'no' to Independence, while 5,714 (25.6 per cent) said 'yes'.

Having staked his future on a 'yes' vote, Premier Sir John Swan resigned immediately, ending a 13-year stint at the helm of the United Bermuda Party (UBP) administration.

The vote had originally been planned for August 15 but Hurricane Felix arrived on that very day, forcing the poll to be put back 24 hours. The coincidental arrival of the storm drew a wry comment from the late Frederick Wade, then leader of the PLP, who had campaigned for voters to abstain.

"Even God does not want the referendum," Mr. Wade said.

Although the PLP stood then, as now, in favour of Independence, Mr. Wade did not want it before electoral reform had taken place. And he wanted Independence to be secured through a General Election, rather than a referendum ? a position the PLP still holds.

of the vote was welcomed by Bermuda Perfumery managing director Colin Curtis, the chairman of anti-Independence group Bermuda First, who said: "The outcome will demonstrate that the Bermudian animal is conservative, slow to change, and very likely someone who has drunk at the reservoir of common sense."

Anti-Independence UBP backbencher Trevor Moniz said Independence would be raised again, but "not in the short term, not in the next ten years at least".

Walton Brown was at that time chairman of the Committee for the Independence of Bermuda, and he was disappointed, though not surprised by the 'no' vote.

"Our campaign for Independence didn't start with John Swan's referendum," he said. "This was a very important turning point."

Other groups were spawned by the debate, particularly those opposed to Independence. Historian Joyce Hall launched Bermudians for Continued Stability, while eight Government MPs formed the UBP Group Against Independence Now.

The groups ran costly media campaigns to get their points across, while Government published Independence information ads to try and encourage a high turnout.

One of the most telling quotes of the time came from Mr. Curtis, who said: "This whole issue has divided Bermuda more than any issue I can think of in 58 years."

Certainly, the governing party was torn. Three separate referendum bills were brought before the House of Assembly before one finally passed.

There was a Cabinet resignation and the threat of five more. Some MPs abstained in key Government votes.

Of 21 Government MPs, ten said they would vote 'no', six said 'yes' and five kept their decisions to themselves.

The spark that set in motion the events that led up to the referendum was the UK Government's decision to close HMS Malabar, announced in December 1993, which ended a 200-year Royal Navy presence on the island.

Sir John called the closure "a further erosion of ties with Britain". And despite the fact that his party had just scraped back into power in a General Election after a campaign in which Independence was not mentioned, the Premier pushed for the referendum.

Though Premier Scott has yet to put his political neck on the line, it could be argued there is a historical parallel between now and then.

The spark that prompted Mr. Scott to bring up Independence was the showdown with Governor Sir John Vereker over the appointment of a new Chief Justice.

The Premier made it clear his favoured candidate was naturalised Bermudian Norma Wade Miller.

But by the terms of the Bermuda Constitution, the decision was the Governor's and he decided on Richard Ground, a former Bermuda judge and Chief Justice of the Turks & Caicos Islands.

The clearly irritated Premier denounced the procedure as "colonial" and started talking about Independence.

The major difference between Mr. Scott now and Sir John then is that the current leader heads a party whose long-stated aim is to gain Independence and is therefore likely to have majority support from his own colleagues as he pushes for an electoral mandate for the country to go it alone.

In 1995, the 'yes' campaigners argued that Bermuda needed the flexibility that only Independence could bring in a rapidly changing world.

Sir John said: "Bermuda's interests are not necessarily the same as those of the UK." And he also argued that Independence would help to bring blacks and whites together, as it would put them all the same boat with no one to bail them out.

The 'no' side's argument centred on the notion that, 'if it ain't broke, don't fix it' and that the island had effectively governed itself since 1968.

They claimed that an independent Bermuda would face increased costs for internal security and foreign representation.

And they also cited the potential loss of international business due to a perceived loss of stability, an argument backed by the vast majority of the business community.

On the day the vote results were announced, Chamber of Commerce president Bobby Rego summarised the feelings of most business people, when he said: "I think everyone is relieved we've had the referendum and it's a clear 'no' vote. Let's get on with business. Let's get on with our lives."

Sir John tried hard to engage the support of Opposition Leader Mr. Wade, by endorsing the idea of single-seat constituencies. The offer was rejected by Mr. Wade, who said it was meaningless without the full support of the UBP.

Mr. Wade had urged PLP supporters to abstain, but according to a poll carried out by Penn and Schoen Associates on the month of the referendum, around half of them would have voted against Independence anyway.

The poll showed that just 32 per cent of PLP supporters would have voted for Independence, compared to 51 per cent against it.

Mr. Wade said at the time: "As to why PLP supporters said they were against Independence may be because of the way the question was framed. It could be that they were against Independence now and not Independence period.

"People were not happy with the way Independence was being put to them and were unhappy that the Government had no plans."

Despite the fact that the UBP Government was pushing for Independence, only 20 per cent of UBP supporters quizzed before the vote supported cutting ties with Britain.

If a referendum were held today, Premier Scott would need a huge swing from 1995 to gain the people's approval of Independence. But PLP supporters would certainly be more likely to back an Independence campaign under a PLP Government. And arguably more likely still, if the vote was tied up with a General Election.

Many of the points raised in the debate in 1995 would be equally relevant today. And there would inevitably be extra bones of contention.

far as Britain's view on Bermuda's Independence goes, the official line has certainly been in recent years that the UK will not stand in the way if it is the clear and constitutionally expressed wish of the people" to lose Overseas Territory status.

But there have been clear signs that the "mother country" would actually welcome a 'yes' vote, none clearer than last May, when the United Nations held a decolonisation summit on the Caribbean island of Anguilla.

The highest-ranking British official to attend was Roy Osborne, deputy head of the Overseas Territories Department, who called for Bermuda's name to be removed from the C-24 list, the list of countries that the UN wants to see "decolonised".

Mr. Osborne said at the summit: "Bermuda is as close to Independence as she could be without taking that final step.

"So I don't think describing Bermuda as being under colonial administration comes anywhere close to reflecting the reality of the situation, which makes me wonder what Bermuda is doing on the C-24 list."

After his statement, Mr. Osborne said his department was ready for Bermuda to take the final step towards Independence. And he added that the Bermuda Government had been given increased autonomy over the years with the it would lead to Independence.