No economic growth before next year
Government debt continues on an easy uphill climb, revenues were weaker than expected last year and the economy is limping along, according to the latest Government report.But the Finance Ministry manages a glimmer of optimism in its just released fiscal performance update and economic review.A total of 226 new Bermudian hires were recorded for the second quarter of this year. Their employers will benefit from the Government’s two-year payroll tax holiday policy initiative announced in the Budget.And, reports the Finance Ministry, the first six months of 2013 saw 470 new international companies and partnerships registered in Bermuda — a 13.5 percent increase over the 414 registrations in 2012.Another positive sign, Government says, was a 0.5 percent increase in employment income in the first quarter of 2013 — to $883.3 million — compared to the same period a year ago.And, primarily driven by the redevelopment of the King Edward Memorial Hospital, activity in the construction sector in the first quarter doubled from an estimated value of work put in place of $23.2 million in 2012 to $46.0 million in 2013.But there is no expectation that the economy will begin to grow again before next year.“Overall, the Ministry of Finance anticipates that Bermuda’s GDP will be flat to negative 0.75 percent in 2013,” the report states.Higher costs for food, healthcare, overseas travel and accommodations have ensured a two percent inflation rate, and consumer spending in retail outlets between January and June is down $1.2 million or 0.2 percent to $514.0 million. Of that amount, approximately $487.2 million was spent locally while $26.8 million was spent overseas.The first quarter of 2013 also saw a 4.5 percent decline in the number of visitors to the Island.While air visitors declined by one percent, the decline in cruise visitors was more drastic at 45.4 percent — due to the fact that ships coming to the Island in 2012 had a much greater capacity.Total visitor spending was down by 4.5 percent settling, at $34.1 million.Bermuda’s banks saw a 4.9 percent decrease in assets and gave out 7.7 percent less loans and advances in the first quarter of 2013 than the same period a year earlier.The Finance Ministry also gave highlights of the unaudited accounts of the Consolidated Fund.Fiscal 2012/13 $877.1 million in total revenue, down $37.1 million (4.1 percent) from the previous year’s revenue ($914.2 million).“Revenues were also below the original budget estimates by approximately $32.5 million (3.6%), primarily due to weak Customs Duty collections which were $28.8 million below budget estimates,” the report states.“The most significant generators of revenues for fiscal 2012/13 were Payroll Taxes, accounting for $339.2 million and Customs Duty, accounting for $171.2 million.”But current expenses, excluding debt service for fiscal 2012/13, at $974.7 million, were down 1.6 percent, while total capital account cash expenditure at $63 million was $3.5 million higher than the previous year.Government paid out $81.5 million in interest on long term debt — $31.5 million from the Consolidated Fund and $50 million from the Sinking Fund.“Net Public Debt, which excludes guarantees and is net of the Sinking Fund, increased by $240.9 million (2012 — $234.0 million) during fiscal 2012/13 standing at $1.477 billion (2012 — $1.236 billion) at the end of the year. This represents a 19.6% increase from fiscal 2011/12.”Revenues for the current fiscal year so far total $208.7 million — $0.3 million higher than the first quarter of last year and on track with estimates.But current spending, at $247.3 million is $3 million lower than last year but above budget.First quarter capital expenditures were $17.7 million, roughly $9.5 million higher than in June 2012 -primarily due to expenditures related to the Heritage Wharf project.“Total current and capital spending to date, excluding debt service, is $6.2 million higher than last year’s spend.”Government has spent $33.2 million in servicing the debt in the first quarter, $23.8 million was interest payments, while $9.4 million went into the Sinking Fund.“Interest expenses are $15 million higher than 2012. This is principally due to a portion of the 2012 interest expense being paid from the Sinking Fund in 2012,” according to the report.“On June 30, 2013, central Government gross debt, excluding guarantees, stood at $1.683 billion, while net debt was $1.586 billion.”Government is aiming for $871.2 million in total revenue for its $1.1 billion budget this fiscal year. Capital spending is budgeted at $84.6 million.