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Number of seniors expected to double by 2030

Bermuda's greying population will be one of the greatest challenges facing it this century, with the number of seniors set to double by 2030.

That was the stark warning in a Government report which lifts the lid on the pitfalls of the "baby boom" generation getting old.

Shadow Minister for Seniors Louise Jackson claimed last night that little is being done to tackle the demographic time bomb, and those growing old face a potential "horror show" in later life.

The authors of the Bermuda Population Projections 2000-2030 report warned: "The decline in the young population and their ability or willingness to look after their parents someday will have consequences on the structure of our society and the economy. Finding care providers for seniors will become a more pressing challenge than finding baby-sitters as the population continues to age. More retirement facilities and senior citizen day-care facilities will also be required."

According to the report, compiled by the Department of Statistics, the number of over-65s will rocket from 11 percent of the population in 2000 to 22 percent over the next 24 years. Fewer babies will be born in future ? with the birth rate having already halved since 1950 ? at the same time as people living longer. The life expectancy will be almost 82 years in 2030 compared to just under 78 in the year 2000. The combination of less children, an older workforce and more elderly people, it said, will put care facilities, housing, the pension pot and those of working age to the test.

"Prolonged life of the elderly equates to increased responsibility for the Bermudian working population in general and their children in particular. A shrinking Bermudian workforce and ageing population also means a smaller tax base for government revenue at a time when the number of pension payments will increase," it stated.

Among the options raised to boost the dwindling workforce are increasing the mandatory retirement age of 65 ? a plan already mooted by Government and backed by Age Concern ? abolishing it altogether, or bringing in additional foreign workers.

It also warned of the "far reaching consequences" that the demographic shift could have on the Contributory Pension Fund (CPF).

"The financial viability of this type of pension scheme can be problematic if the number of pensioners is rising at a faster rate than the number of workers," it said, quoting past Government green papers that highlighted the prospect of the CBF actually becoming insolvent.

Measures to address the greying population were outlined by Minister of Finance Paula Cox in the the last budget statement, pledging to encourage work beyond the pensionable age.

Expanding on this theme after last week's Throne Speech, Ms Cox said there would be changes to the public Superannuation Fund to take account of those people who wish to work beyond the normal retirement age but still require access to their pension.

Employers and employees have been required to pay larger amounts to the CPF since August. The weekly contributory rates for employers went up from $50.68 to $53.60. Meanwhile, payouts increased by four percent. A new elderly care facility in St. George's will soon open, with a $12.5 million housing complex for seniors at Rockaway, Southampton, also in the pipeline.

Mrs. Jackson gave credit to for these moves, but believes not enough is being done.

"It will be a horror show. I don't even want to be around to see it," she said of her fears for those approaching old age.

"It's hard to deal with it today. If Government is not taking care of the seniors now, just imagine the future."

The 73-year-old Shadow Minister added: "The rest of the world has been preparing for the baby boomer era to burst into senior citizen territory, but Bermuda hasn't sorted out its present senior situation." She said half the senior population lives below the poverty line, with many struggling to live on the CPF. She expressed concern for the healthcare for the elderly - particularly with confusion surrounding future plans for the Island's new hospital - and repeated her long-standing concerns about widespread abuse and neglect of seniors. She agreed with the report's words about young people today being less willing to look after seniors, and expressed concern that Government would not step in to fill the void.

"Parliamentarians are not looking any further down the line than where the next vote comes from," she said.

Mrs. Jackson backed the idea of raising the retirement age from 65, as did Shadow Minister of Finance, Patricia Gordon Pamplin.

"Historically, at 65, people have been ready to put their feet up. I'm not ready to go home and put my feet up," said the 56-year-old Mrs. Gordon Pamplin. She said with the population living longer, this would also help address the stresses and strains of their financial obligations. She added that a far greater infusion of funds would be needed in future to address the shrinking pool of those contributing to the CPF, "unless people start to have a whole lot more kids."

Ms Cox, Minister of Nelson Bascome and Minister of Social Rehabilitation Dale Butler did not respond to invitations to comment by press time.