There are eight districts which have either changed hands in the last two elections or were won by fewer than 50 votes. Conventional wisdom says these are the key marginal constituencies.But it should also be noted that changes to the constituency boundaries have, in some cases, radically altered the electoral map since the landmark reforms which ushered in single seat constituencies in 2003.Seven other districts merit special attention because they could well be transitioning to marginal status due to the number of candidates running or the impact of boundary changes.Here Ayo Johnson takes a first glance look at the what could well be the key battlegrounds in the coming election.We will take a more in-depth look at each of the districts in coming editions.MarginalsSt George's North #1St George’s Mayor Kenneth Bascome and Dame Jennifer Smith have battled each other in this district in the last two elections.Dame Jennifer hung on by just eight votes in 2003, which included a third candidate — Gavin Smith who ran as an independent. She managed a 25 vote majority in 2007.The impact of the boundary changes, which will see 19 voters move to district 4, could be a deciding factor in what is expected to be one of the closest fought race come December 17.St George's West #2 (three-way race)Another district that is too close to call, St George’s West chose a PLP candidate, Dean Foggo, to represent them in 2003 but he only won by 22 votes against Kim Swan who snatched it from him in 2007 with a 17 vote majority.The election contest here is particularly significant as Mr Swan will be fighting to keep his seat against two candidates — Nandi Davis, a political newcomer chosen by the One Bermuda Alliance, and John Gibbons, the ruling party’s candidate, also a newcomer to electoral politics.This is the only district whose boundaries remain unchanged.St David’s #3This district is only technically a marginal. It was won by the then Official Opposition United Bermuda Party’s Suzann Roberts-Holshouser in 2003 by just 15 votes, probably the reason why OBA leader Craig Cannonier who has roots in the area is not his party’s candidate.Mrs Roberts-Holshouser, a political rookie at the time, won against the PLP’s Danvers Seymour, also a political rookie who was drafted into the race at the last minute following the retirement of the incumbent Arthur Pitcher.In 2007, Lovitta Foggo snatched back the seat for the ruling party with an impressive 90 vote margin. She also benefited from an influx of voters into the Southside area.Ms Foggo will defend her seat against OBA newcomer Gaylynne Cannonier on December 17. Both candidates have roots in the area, but boundary changes will see 197 voters move to St George’s South.St George’s South #4This district sees 197 new voters from the old St David’s but will lose 186 voters to district 5 as a result of boundary changes, and 168 voters to Hamilton South.Just eight votes decided the contest in 2003, which was won by the PLP’s Renee Webb against the UBP’s Tim Smith. But newcomer Donte Hunt took the seat for the UBP with a 25- vote majority running against the ruling party’s candidate Phil Perinchief, in 2007.First run candidate Leroy Bean will attempt to return the seat to the PLP against the OBA’s Suzann Holshouser.Hamilton West #6Will Opposition party supporters be more motivated to toss out Tourism Minister Wayne Furbert who has crossed the aisle to the ruling party?Mr Furbert held the district for the UBP against veteran Wilbur Lowe by 61 votes in 2003, but his majority was narrowed to 21 votes in 2007 when he faced off against the PLP’s Charles Clarke.The OBA’s Donte Hunt will take on Mr Furbert come December 17.Because of boundary changes, the district loses 241 voters to Smiths North, district 10.Devonshire North Central #13Glenn Blakeney, now the Families Minister, will be challenged for this seat by first-time candidate Anthony Francis of the OBA.He’s held it since 2003 when he won against the late Hilary Soares with a 105 vote majority. But that majority was reduced significantly in 2007, to 57, when Albertha Waite took him on for the UBP. At first glance, it looks like the redrawn Devonshire North Central could be a stronger district for the ruling party as it has 410 new voters taken from three other districts which were traditionally PLP. But it also lost 352 voters to district 14. This district cannot be taken for granted.Warwick North East #25In 2003, Dale Butler won this seat for the PLP by just 36 votes. His opponent, Mark Pettingill (UBP) was replaced by Gina Spence Farmer in 2007 but Mr Butler’s lead was extended to 68 votes.Mr Pettingill is back for a rematch in December as the candidate for the OBA.Redrawn boundaries will see it lose 210 voters to its neighbour, Warwick South East (district 24), but it will gain 209 districts from Warwick North Central.Southampton East Central #30This is definitely a marginal and has been since 2003. Health Minister Zane DeSilva fled the district for safer territory when boundary revisions sent about a third of his constituents (386 voters) to neighbouring Southampton East. The redrawn boundaries also saw the district exchange 36 voters to Southampton West Central for 81.In 2003 the UBP held it by just 20 votes, but Mr DeSilva snatched it from David Dodwell in the 2007 election with a 48 vote majority.On December 17, voters will be asked to choose between two first run candidates Stephen Todd (PLP) and Leah Scott (OBA).Ones to watchHamilton South #7This district will gain 168 voters from St George’s South as a result of redrawn boundaries, but loses 186 voters to Smith’s South (district eight). This is another district that is only technically a marginal as some demographic characteristics may have shifted significantly due to the redrawn boundaries, pushing it further into the fold of the Opposition camp.Two first run candidates Senator Diallo Rabain (PLP) and Sylvan Richards (OBA) will woo the voters of Hamilton South, a district which has been held by the UBP for the last two elections.The UBP’s majority was widened in 2007 to 127 when Wayne Caines ran against Darius Tucker who was then batting for the UBP.David Burch was the ruling party’s standard bearer in 2003 but lost to Maxwell Burgess by 106 votes.Smith’s North # 10Patrice Parris held off the UBP’s Allan Marshall with a strong 123 vote majority when the election was held in 2003. In 2007 Michael Dunkley left a safe seat and risked his position as UBP Leader to try and unseat Ms Parris, now Economy Minister Patrice Minors. He lost by 92 votes. But this district is thought to have become marginal due to boundary changes and the December 17 election represents a rematch between Mr Dunkley, who is running for the OBA this time, and the Minister.Devonshire East #11The ruling party made significant progress in 2007 when Neville Tyrrell garnered just 27 fewer votes than the UBP’s Bob Richards. In 2003, Mr Tyrrell was 214 votes behind Michael Dunkley, the UBP leader at the time.Mr Tyrrell and Mr Richards, now of the OBA, will go head to head again on December 17.But boundary changes have landed the district 64 voters from Smiths West and another 22 from Devonshire South Central, both Opposition strongholds.Pembroke West #19On the face of it this is an Opposition stronghold. It has been held by strong majorities for the UBP in the last two elections in 2003 Jamahl Simmons held it by 221 votes against Calvin Smith, and in 2007 Shawn Crockwell won by 144 votes against the PLP’s Walton Brown.But it’s a three way race this time around, with former UBP MP Erwin Adderley running as an independent against newcomers Jeanne Atherden (OBA) his sister and the PLP’s Vincent Ingham.Mr Adderley, who is well known in the area and has run there before, could be a spoiler for the OBA unless of course the voters send a clear signal that independent candidates are not appreciated. It gained 49 voters from district 20, an Opposition stronghold, when the boundaries were redrawn.Pembroke South East # 21This is the district that made the most headlines in the months leading up to the election call. First the ruling party’s branch organisation rejected incumbent Ashfield DeVent in favour of Rolfe Commissiong as the candidate. Then it emerged as a popular area for independents at one point five people had publicly announced their intention to run.But at last count the race here will be a three-way race between Mr Commissiong, Jeff Baron (OBA) and Tillman Darrell who is running as an independent.In 2003, Mr DeVent’s majority was a very strong 456 votes against the UBP’s Lawrence Fox. Voter turnout was lower in 2007 and Mr DeVent’s majority this time against Mr Darrell (UBP) was reduced to 274.To compound things even further, redistricting has sent a total of 403 voters to two other districts. But it gained ten voters from Pembroke South West, an Opposition stronghold. And there’s still time for yet another dark horse candidate to emerge.Warwick North Central #27This is another district that has been held by a strong PLP majority. In 2003 George Scott beat the UBP’s Yvette Swan by 134 votes. In 2007, the lead was reduced to 117 votes when Elvin James ran against the UBP’s Wayne Scott. Wayne Scott will be trying again this time, but against David Burch in a redrawn Warwick North Central. The redistricting will see 209 voters go to Warwick North East, district 25 but it also gains 187 voters from Warwick West, district 28 which has been handily won by the UBP over the last two elections.Southampton West Central #31 (3 way race)In 2003, Jon Brunson won this seat for the UBP with a 129 vote majority over his opponent Michael Scott. In 2007, he increased his lead to 148 against Marc Bean but turnout was significantly lower.This time around, the UBP’s Charlie Swan who won the seat in a 2008 byelection with a 115- vote majority, will be challenged by two candidates Shawn Crockwell (OBA) and Scott Simmons (PLP).Redistricting will see it lose 81 voters to Southampton East Central, while gaining 36 from the same district.