AS with all New Year's predictions, travel specialists around the world are attempting to analyse what's ahead on the travel horizon. But since we increasingly live in a world where there are no certainties, that's become more of a guess each year.

The world is still in shock over what happened when the massive tsunami caused havoc in southeast Asia, claiming at least 150,000 lives. No one knows what the year ahead holds to send further shock waves through the travel world.

At the moment, with the US dollar weakened, the United States would appear to be a preferred destination for many bargain-seeking overseas vacationers.

Evidence of that began appearing before Christmas when some holiday shoppers began flying the Atlantic from Britain to look for bargains in places like New York and Chicago. Exchange rates made price of flights, accommodations and purchases almost half price. For many, travelling to the American West is not only fascinating, but a giveaway compared to other world-wide destinations. States like California and Arizona spend considerable time and money promoting those areas at European travel shows to a very receptive market.

America's cowboy and Indian frontier past is unique in the travel world. We visited Arizona and Utah Indian country three times in six months (more about that in future features) and each time found more tourists around us speaking German, French, Italian and Spanish than English. Expect even more this coming summer when accommodations will likely be much sought after in popular travel regions.

In fact, that could well be true in many American tourist destinations as an avalanche of overseas visitors arrive thanks to benefit of their strong currency. So it's advisable to keep that in mind when making your own personal travel plans.

Last year saw a strong beginning toward travel recovery in many places. Aeroplanes had more passengers, and so did cruise ships. The tendency to put off booking a cruise until the last minute has eased with many passengers now willing to make more long-range plans.

OF course, that all sounds good at the moment. But even the slightest suggestion of a SARS outbreak could immediately change things. BBC reported the 23rd Vietnam death from that dreaded disease as this was being written January 10, along with some deaths from SARS in Thailand.

Terrorism, a damaging earthquake, any kind of disaster, and things could change very quickly. So any truly reliable predictions remain guesses.

At the moment there's considerable enthusiasm for the reopening of Libya, with special emphasis on reaching there by ship. Dubrovnik and the Dalmatian coast are another destination high on the list, especially when visited by ship.

In fact, buying and paying for a cruise in US dollars is being promoted by travel agents as a good money-saving strategy. There's pent-up demand for European travel, but with the pound fluctuating between $1.84 and $1.95 and the euro in the range of $1.31 to $1.37, many prospective travellers are apprehensive about what it will end up costing.

A cruise prepaid in US dollars is showing good sales potential so far this year since it includes meals and protects the traveller from unexpected escalating currency fluctuations.

Which is not to say people are bypassing other modes of European travel. Buy a plane ticket at the right bargain price and costs of your trip . . . hotel or B and B, car rental, meals, and so forth . . . are the equivalent of dollar cost averaging in the stock market. Expenses even themselves out.

However, expect some changes in the air getting there. When I called to purchase overseas American Airlines tickets in early December, I was told the price and appraised of the fact there would be an additional five-dollar charge for dealing with an agent. Fine, I'd already been doing that for some time purchasing previous tickets, since I prefer discussing itineraries with a live person rather than a computer.

Then I added: "We'd like to upgrade to business class using 50,000 frequent flyer miles from each of our accounts."

"That will be an extra $250 each way to cover the upgrade," the agent informed me. "It's something new that just went into effect."

That came as a surprise, one that was so new I hadn't yet heard about it. So that meant adding an additional $500 to each ticket along with the miles. None of us is ever happy about price increases. Accumulating 50,000 isn't easy to begin with, but with the precarious state of the airline industry, one can understand why they have to.

One thing many passengers won't be doing during their flight is drinking coffee or tea. Not if they've heard and read the warning that went out in late autumn about the quality (or lack of it) of water being used on board to brew it. There was a serious question of contamination, now being investigated industry-wide.

RATED unpotable on a list containing many carriers, it made us decide to stop ordering our usual coffee with Bailey's Irish Cream after on-plane dinners and instead change to just plain Baileys! Ice, however, was not included in the health warning since it's apparently brought on board.

Type in "Contaminated airline water" on the net and read what the EPA (Environmental Protection Agency), Wall Street Journal and others have to say about it.

And, incidentally, if you see the pilot carrying his lunch aboard, don't be surprised. We first noticed it flying back from Phoenix, Arizona on American Airlines in mid-December when my brother Jim commented on the pilot carrying a McDonald's bag aboard.

In early January, Delta announced crew will no longer be served lunch and beverages as a cost-cutting measure. American is also taking pillows off its flights as another cost-saving measure. Since those covers are used over and over without washing, it also seems like a good health measure!

Remember the good old days when there were special fresh cloths as head rests on every flight? Like other airline perks, it's a long-gone memory probably never to be seen again.

Yes, global circumstances have limited travel to sections of the Middle East, parts of southeast Asia and some African war zones. But as the old saying goes: "When one door shuts, another one opens." Eastern Europe promises to be popular, both on river tours and general exploration of locations like Hungary, Poland, Bulgaria and Romania, all less expensive than their western European cousins.

EXPECT to see more advertisements involving cruises and tours to Greenland and Iceland with offerings from a wide variety of ships. A number of very tempting cruise itineraries will also make transatlantic cruise crossings visiting the Shetland and Faroe Islands, continuing on eventually calling in Labrador and Newfoundland. We'll be talking about them in future.

Alaska will continue to make news, as will Antarctica where some cruises are already sell-outs. We learned that when trying to make reservations on a specific one a couple of months ago.

Las Vegas has big plans for the year-long 2005 celebration of its 100th anniversary and we'll be telling readers about some of them soon.

Australia, always a favourite, will be getting even more emphasis this year, both as a cruise destination, package tours and independent travel. So will Hawaii, showing major tourism gains, and the South Pacific. Hawaii, incidentally, will have two new 345-foot catamaran-type ferries between islands in service in 2006.

Many new ports have been added to itineraries as cruise lines expand. But with some exceptions. One is St. Croix, US Virgin Islands, where Royal Caribbean began docking again. But only as a refuelling stop, since most major cruise lines stopped calling there around two years ago. The Associated Press reported it was "because of a lack of demand and a spate of crimes against crew members and passengers".

Also a surprise was the extent to which France's tourism has dropped. A travel-oriented company, with total focus on that country, sent a press release in late autumn announcing observation of its 20th anniversary.

Not long after, in early December, came a plaintive letter proclaiming "French hoteliers, restaurateurs and shopkeepers are desperate for the return of the American tourist" (and obviously the Bermudians as well).

"In 2000 there were 3.8 million Americans in France. In 2003 that number dropped to 2.4 million." The figures for 2004 were not available.

A trend towards Costa Rico, Mexico and South America is expected to continue, especially if the euro holds strong. Expect to hear more about such wondrous sites as Macchu Pichu, Easter Island, Chilean fjords. Greece also expects continuing beneficial results from the Olympics. India is increasingly popular, and so is Malta.

Even Thai tourism officials are asking vacationers to return to help the economy. And less than two weeks after the tsunami hit Phuket, television news did show tourists lounging on its beach, swimming and playing tennis.

It's a very personal decision, but somehow this traveller just couldn't do that knowing the desperate condition of those hit by the disaster. It would be hard to feel comfortable sleeping in a luxury hotel while survivors in nearby refugee camps had nothing but a tent . . . unless there was an opportunity to pitch in and help as a volunteer, somehow assisting. Which is what we did on Kauai after hurricane Iniki struck.

Star Clipper's Star Flyer, which we sailed on out of Turkey to the Greek Islands, now calls Phuket its home port. It will temporarily be based out of Singapore and expects to return to Thailand in mid February.

Meanwhile, adventure travel of other types continues to expand. Whether your choice is white-water rafting down the Colorado, climbing Mount Kilimanjaro or trekking in South Africa, the list of possibilities is growing and we'll be doing a round-up on them soon.