Bermuda dodged a bullet this weekend when Hurricane Leslie was downgraded to a tropical storm and then steered clear of the Island. But that does not mean anyone should let their guards down.Earlier this week, Leslie looked like it was headed straight for the Island, and had the potential to do severe damage.Had it come, Bermuda had the good fortune to have a good deal of time to prepare, unlike, for example, Hurricane Emily in 1987.Indeed, hurricane forecasting has come a long way since then, when shark oil sometimes seemed to be as good a predictor (even if it failed spectacularly in that hurricane).The lessons learned from Emily and from Fabian in 2003 remain important. Cruise ships were diverted, planning was put in place for an orderly closure of bus and ferry services, the opening of schools was postponed and in general, the planning was solid.If there was any mistake, and this was part of the problem with a storm that sat, barely moving, for several days, it was that the authorities erred too much on the side of caution. In retrospect, there was very little need for the schools not to open on Friday, and the early closures of businesses and Government offices was not really necessary.But hindsight is 20-20, and had the storm altered course — and it did come a little closer yesterday than predicted — then the precautions would have seemed highly prescient. There is still a little art in the science of hurricane forecasting.What is clear is that the Atlantic, Caribbean and Mexican Gulf are in for another busy hurricane season. Although it has not yet spawned a monster storm, the fact that it is still early September and there have already been 12 named storms demonstrates that. So far, the most severe damage has been from Hurricane Isaac, which battered the Caribbean and southern US states at the end of August and beginning of September. It is expected to incur around $2 billion in insured losses, and if that is the final bill for the year, Bermuda’s reinsurance industry will be fairly pleased.Of course, even a near miss has some costs. Leslie’s long lead-in and uncertainty about whether visitors would be able to get flights in or out of the Island meant that the tourism industry has experienced some cancellations at a time when it needs all the bookings it can get. This is an occupational hazard, but the widespread coverage given to hurricanes is something that tourism planners and hoteliers must take into account.While some businesses like hardware stores, supermarkets and boat haulers will have received a welcome boost in business, others will have been hurt by a reduction in sales as shoppers stayed home. There is no avoiding this, but it has to be recognised that if Bermuda experiences several near misses it can be costly at a time when the economy is already weak.It is pretty clear that this region is experiencing an upsurge in tropical storms and hurricanes. Fears that there would be more Katrina-type hurricanes have not yet been realised, but a series of “small” hurricanes can collectively do a lot of damage.In the end, Bermuda must do what it has learned to do in recent years — prepare for the worst and hope for the best.