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You will lose in the long run, you can bet on it

o you gamble? Obviously, life is a gamble, and boyfriends, girlfriends and spouses are a gamble, and not having regular physical check-ups is a gamble, and so on, but I mean: do you gamble?

Do you bet on horses, soccer matches, slot machines, roulette wheels, or ? as I once did ? whether the number plate on the next car that drives by will be odd or even?

If you don?t ever gamble, sit back and bask in your moral superiority. This column?s for the rest of us.

It?s a curious thing. You work like a dog from sun-up to sunset (plus or minus five percent) to earn a crust; you have bills coming out of your ears; and then (in the words of Steely Dan) you find you?re back in Vegas, with a handle in your hands.

There are psychological reasons for this behaviour, no doubt, but I?m not your shrink. I?m your money?s shrink. So I?m not going to say ?don?t gamble? ? especially since I myself used to like a flutter on just about anything that fluttered ? but I thought I might offer a few ground rules to ensure that gambling becomes something you enjoy, win or lose or draw.

Start with this premise: over the long term, you?re going to lose. A casino is a giant building with marble surfaces and glitzy everything else. A gambler is someone who has his empty pockets turned inside out and a big ugly fellow calling his marker in five minutes? time. The odds in casinos are stacked against you, and over the long haul, the law of averages is just that: an inexorable rule, like the law of gravity.

For every Chris Furbert, the BIU official who reportedly won $76,000 at a poker tournament recently, there is a Chris Furbert who did not so happily report the fact that he lost money at other tournaments. I don?t know that for a fact, but I?d, um, bet it was true.

So the first rule of gambling is to accept the fact that, like any other entertainment, gambling costs money.

Acknowledging that fact does not mean that you shouldn?t gamble, or that you should approach gambling with a pessimistic approach. By all means imagine that you?re about to break the bank at Monte Carlo, or at your pal?s house in a friendly game of poker, but don?t let the heat of the moment blind you to the actualities.

I probably don?t need to tell you not to drink when you?re gambling. You need your wits about you to calculate the odds, or just to watch the other players? behaviour. One drink might loosen your inhibitions and make you a better player, but two or more will almost certainly reduce the odds of you playing your best, whatever the game.

Before you start, set a limit on the amount that you?re willing to lose, and never, repeat never, go beyond it. No matter how suddenly lucky you may feel as you reach that limit, no matter how long a lucky streak you think you are due, do not exceed your pre-set limit. When I played roulette, my favourite game of chance, I took to the casino only the amount I was willing to lose, plus cab fare home. Yes, I usually lost the cab fare, too, and then had to walk home, but at least I know that going in to the evening. You can?t lose what you don?t have with you.

With the success of Bermuda?s cricket team, the notion is around that the more money we throw at the players, the better they will perform. That?s nonsense, of course, but I can tell you that when the $11 million recently given to the game runs out, a national lottery will not be far behind. Minister of Sport Dale Butler has already referred to the idea, albeit in a neutral manner, in interviews.

Do not play lotteries. Ever. The chances of winning are worse than your chance of being hit by lightning, and you?re already carrying that risk every time you go out in the rain. You?re not going to win the lottery. It is, and I?m sorry to tell you this if you?re a big lottery fan, a tax on stupidity. Worse, since rich people don?t need to play the lottery, it is a tax on the poor.

If gambling has you in its grip, get help. Although Bermuda officially does not allow gambling, we have horse betting shops, Crown and Anchor and private poker games, and the Internet and trips overseas provide any number of opportunities to lose your shirt.

The whole point of gambling is the rush it provides, the ability to engage some emotions that we don?t use much day to day. The main thing is not to lose more than you can afford, but here are a few other bits of advice.

* Don?t play American roulette. The second zero makes the odds in favour of the house prohibitive.

* Quit when you?re ahead, if possible. That sounds counter-intuitive, because if you?re winning, why should you quit? Believe me, because I know, that?s exactly when you should quit. If you?ve only been there five minutes and win big, go elsewhere and have dinner or watch a movie. You?ll thank me the day after.

* When playing blackjack, the aim is not to get as close as possible to 21. The aim is to beat the dealer. Stick on 14 or better if the dealer has a 2,3,4 or 5. He or she has to draw again. You don?t.

* Remember that dice, roulette wheels, one-armed bandit counters and all the other inert paraphernalia of gambling have no memory. Just because a dice has landed on a five 20 times in a row does not alter the chances that it will land on a five next time. They remain one in six. The law of averages works in the very long run. It is not reliable in the short term.

* When figuring your gains or losses, count all the costs. Mr. Furbert reportedly paid a $10,00 entry fee to win his $76,000. He might owe US tax on his win, for all I know. If he does, allowing for the entry fee, he actually won about $45,000. Such an amount may or may not exceed his previous losses, since to become good at anything requires experience, and beginners experience losses more often than not. (I don?t mean to pick on Mr. Furbert, but by talking to the Press about his win, he opens himself up to such analysis.)

* Don?t talk to the Press about your wins. Everyone you meet will want a loan. Unpaid loans after you?ve been boasting about your success count as gambling losses.

How did I get to be so smart about gambling? Don?t ask. I learned it all the hard way. I have made every idiotic mistake in the book, and then some. I just hope you can avoid some of the same blunders.

Good luck! If everyone in Bermuda took all this advice, and sent me one percent of the money they saved as a result, I?d be the richest man outside Tucker?s Town in no time flat.