ACTIVIST Khalid Wasi is waiting for "the collapse of one of the major parties" to launch a new political group.

His prediction is that the United Bermuda Party (UBP) will be the one to fail, as he says it has no chance of returning to Government under its current leader, Wayne Furbert.

"I have always said that there is no room in Bermuda for a third party," Mr. Wasi said, in explaining why political plans he announced earlier this year are yet to surface.

"We did have a meeting in April or May, a gathering of some people, but essentially, what we have done is suspend the thought."

In January Mr. Wasi announced plans for a new political party. He simultaneously stepped down as spokesman for the lobby group Bermudians for Referendum, in order to make it clear the two groups were not connected.

"We were hoping the UBP or another party would have seen they were effectively redundant, that their chances at best are very, very slim," he said yesterday.

"We thought a new organisation was the best option for the country. We still think that. And so we're sitting on the hill, looking at the dynamics of what we currently see being played out.

"I suspect what will happen depends on the leadership challenge initiated by Dr. Brown. How that turns out may determine the fate of the next election."

The political activist added that should a leadership change in the ruling Progressive Labour Party (PLP) take place, it would not bode well for the UBP.

"Any change within the PLP sounds a death knell for the Opposition. When Alex Scott became Premier, in spite of the way in which it was done, there was a period of time where there was a sense of hope, a degree of optimism.

"And when you have a change in leadership, you tend to get that kind of burst. So it's an uphill climb for the UBP."

Mr. Wasi said he believes his group could fill a niche in Bermuda politics, offering voters a party that didn't have a particular race as its foundation.

"There's huge dissatisfaction with the continuing of race politics ? which the two parties epitomise. There's a grey area of between 40 per cent and 47 per cent, people who are not satisfied with either party.

"They want a genuine ideology. They want new thought. They want sober, sensible leadership.

"It's something we are hoping to provide but it necessitates the collapse of one of the major parties ? where one party has an unassailable hold on the electorate which causes the other party to become redundant.

"Generally, we're sitting on the mountaintop watching how the battle goes. We're looking for an opportune moment."

Such a moment could come prior to the complete demise of a party ? most likely to be the UBP.

"Say the polls start to show the PLP is high and the UBP is low. Even at that moment, we think a move would be likely.

"Politics in Bermuda is not driven by ideology or thought. It's driven by sociology. The parties were constructed on race and we're living at the tail end of that paradigm.

"I don't think either party can take it beyond that. It would take a tumultuous event for the PLP to go through that change. The PLP has the population."

Asked if he thought Opposition leader Wayne Furbert was capable of swaying voters, Mr. Wasi was adamant in his response.

"No. It's not that Wayne's not a good person. I think he is. But in order for him to be a real factor as a leader, he would have to have the stature of Sir John Swan. And even Sir John Swan at the moment is doubtful.

"The UBP doesn't have the population behind them. They are dependent on the PLP failing. They have no natural winning idea or team and that's not the mode you want to go into an election with."