Tourism will be one of the key battlegrounds in the General Election as both parties try to convince voters they have the best prescription for returning one of the ailing twin pillars of the economy back to health.

The bold facts are simple: under four and half years of Progressive Labour Party rule, the 20-year decline in visitor arrivals which the United Bermuda Party (UBP) oversaw has continued ever downward. (Last year numbers were up, but it followed the wipe-out of 2001 after September 11 and failure to improve on that would have been an unmitigated disaster).

Former Tourism Minister David Allen's bombastic talk of a 100-day recovery plan became an embarrassment for the PLP as the numbers continued going south. In 1998, air arrival figures were 368,756 - the first time they had been below 370,000 since 1973. In 2002, air arrivals were 283,557.

But Tourism Minister Renee Webb said yesterday this year would definitely be up on last. For the year to May the Island was 0.5 percent down on 2002, but June will be better. And some hotels are predicting 90 percent occupancy - "the first time that has happened in goodness knows how long," she said.

And the PLP can make a plausible case that it has laid the groundwork for a promising future in tourism by introducing the Hotel Concessions Act. It is the PLP's key single piece of tourism legislation which has helped kick-start a much-needed investment of several hundred million dollars to upgrade the Island's hotels, by giving concessions on capital projects.

Hotels also get tax breaks for investing in the training of Bermudians and hiring Bermudian entertainers.

The UBP may argue that key components of the concessions - particularly duty relief - were already in place before 1998 and that a lot of the hotel investment was planned anyway. But the plain fact is the big investment dollars have been spent under the PLP, and if the UBP gets back into power, it will reap the benefits of this.

Transport Minister Dr Ewart Brown's success in winning new airlift from Washington (switched from Baltimore), New York, Boston, and a weekly seasonal flight from Fort Lauderdale, Florida - plus his wooing of low-cost airline JetBlue - could also give a boost to tourism.

But the PLP has not delivered the numbers and the Tourism Department has been prone to gaffes - the most embarrassing being the use of a Hawaii-an beach in Bermuda's latest advertising campaign.

And Shadow Tourism Minister David Dodwell's big idea of privatising the Ministry of Tourism by creating an independent Tourism Authority run by professionals is winning support on the Island from those who are sick of the constant politicking that besets this vital part of the economy.

Tourism activist Tony Brannon, who owns Bermuda.com and is a fierce critic of the PLP's tourism record, supports an independent Tourism Authority, as does National Liberal Party vice-president Graeme Outerbridge.

However, Ms Webb rejected the idea of a Tourism Authority yesterday and questioned why Mr. Brannon and Mr. Outerbridge supported the idea now when they could have called for it before, and claimed they were doing so for political reasons because the UBP was no longer in power.

Ms Webb said the key things achieved under the PLP had been the Hotel Concessions Act; the rebranding of the Island in the Bermuda shorts campaign to ensure a consistent message; formation of the public-private sector Bermuda Alliance for Tourism (BAT); new advertising agencies; and modernising the way Tourism operates in Bermuda and overseas to make it more efficient.

"The PLP has done extremely well. We needed new thinking and new vision driving tourists to Bermuda as numbers have kept declining over 20 years and something drastic had to be done," she said. "We didn't have any any new hotel investment in the last 20 years and no significant redevelopment and we had to put something in place that would generate investment.

"The Hotel Concessions Act has been very successful and we've seen all these renovations up and down the country as hoteliers have taken advantage to invest in infrastructure and improve entertainment and training of Bermudians.

"On rebranding, in a survey we found out Bermuda was not top of people's minds for a holiday destination and was not even in the top ten when it came to an island vacation. Bermuda was sending mixed messages and there was no particular thing people related to Bermuda.

"For every campaign marketing Bermuda it was a different thing. Now the campaign is consistent and we have decided to get back into the television market."

Rejecting a Tourism Authority, she said: "Tourism needs to be run like a business and it is not currently, and that is my challenge.

"It (Tourism Department) needs to be modernised, to have management information systems in place, and we are strengthening all of that. I can't say things are rosy because things need to be done and they are being done. There is no reason it cannot be run like a corporation with Government.

"The whole issue is that the Department needs to be run like a business. It definitely cannot function otherwise. Other departments can run like ordinary civil service departments, but tourism operates purely in a business environment. We are trying to ensure that people locally and overseas have the tools that make them function as if they were working in any other business.

"(Visitor) numbers had been going down, but things were being worked on to get them up, but it takes a while. Minister Allen laid the groundwork and I am continuing that vision and things are coming to fruition.

"June is going to be up and we will be up on last year, that is for definite.

“I enjoy a challenge and if there is anything that gets me up in the morning it is a challenge. Tourism is definitely a challenge but it can be overcome.

“You have to have the right system and the right people in place, the right programmes and the right vision, and I am pleased with the way things are going thus far. I hope the Premier re-appoints me as Tourism Minister so I can continue.”

Mr. Dodwell characterised the PLP's record as “four and a half years of decline. They still haven't reached the levels of 1998 and they have lost the confidence and hope of the public.”

The UBP would create a combined ministry that would include tourism and economic development “broadening opportunities for all Bermudian, workers and entrepreneurs”.

The party would “take the politics out of tourism” by creating a Tourism Authority within six months of being elected.

“The rest of the world is doing it that way to compete by reducing bureaucracy and allowing quick decision-making.

“There will be public and private sector members on the board and it will have the tourism budget, but it will be hived off and out of the hands of Government.

“There will be a spokesman in parliament and there will be accountability and legislation will be forced through, but you are not going to have the Minister of Tourism making all the decisions.”

Mr. Dodwell said the Bermuda Alliance for Tourism was “not a real partnership” because it only got half a percent of the Tourism budget. A key UBP aim would be to restore tourism to the number one industry on the Island. There would be a new focus on product, with Government and the private sector coming together to develop North Hamilton, Hamilton waterfront, St. George's and Dockyard into “exciting tourism venues”. And the UBP would try again to kick-start entertainment.

Mr. Dodwell said Government needed to subsidise airlines by $2-3 million, but tie this into marketing and low air strategies which would hold the carriers accountable for the money.

“We have got to reduce the cost of air travel to Bermuda and the key is to creating real competition that, with the help of subsidies, will drive down fares.”

Mr. Dodwell said the “mismanagement” of tourism under Mr. Allen had continued with Ms Webb, and the PLP had “misguided strategies”.

“There is no vision or plan and as a result we have had overspending and poor results. There has been too much focus on marketing, and we will not market our way out of this.

“There has not been enough emphasis on the product which has resulted in the declining rate of value for money which visitors are expressing.

“There have been lost opportunities at Club Med, the Par-la-Ville hotel, and the biggest one ever is Morgan's Point. Three or more developers have slipped through Bermuda's hands because of the PLP's inability to close a deal.”

Mr. Dodwell described the Hotel Concessions Act as “over-rated. The most utilised feature in that Act has been duty relief and that was put in by the UBP in 1991”.

And Mr. Dodwell said Ms Webb's decision to stop releasing arrival figures on a quarterly basis was proof of lack of transparency and a tendency to hide bad news.

NLP vice-chair Graeme Outerbridge said: “Tourism is going backwards. The high cost of airfare and the loss of key people from the Ministry of Tourism are combining to destroy what little we have left in the way of tourism.

“It does not help when you have the Premier lie to the Bermuda public on Wednesday (saying) ‘We have turned tourism around'.

“Since when has a ten percent decrease over the first quarter of 2003 in Bermuda arrivals been anything but market loss?

“Tourism is like the Titanic half out of water - there is no mystery where it is presently heading.”

Mr. Brannon called for the next government to allow casinos in Club Med, the disused Morgan's Point site, the new hotel in Hamilton if it is built, Sonesta Beach Resort, and the Fairmont Southampton. This, and allowing slot machines, would help generate profits and taxation and “level the playing field” with cruise ships. He said Morgan's Point, which has remained empty despite proposals put to Government, should be made into a “Las Vegas-style hotel with golf, watersports centre, convention centre, casino showroom, marina and staff housing. “Atlantis put the Bahamas back on the tourism map. Bermuda needs a ‘wow' property, and Morgan's Point is the place to do it.”

Mr. Brannon said all resort hotels should have outdoor entertainment on the beach and hotels, clubs and bars that hire local entertainers should get tax-free status on payroll tax.