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Weakening economy

Last week’s Quarterly Bulletin of Statistics did not reveal much that was already known about the economy but the statistics demonstrated that in the third quarter of 2011, the recession deepened substantially.There was some good news. Tourism edged up, both in terms of arrivals but also in terms of the more important spending, despite this newspaper’s doubts about the exit surveys that are used to calculate spending. Still, hotel revenues also rose, as did hotel employment. That’s encouraging and should not be dismissed. Any improvement in the economy’s second pillar is welcome.Despite the attention showered on tourism, the reality is that it has shrunk so much in the last two decades that it is not of critical importance to the overall health of the economy, regardless of its social importance and the number of jobs it generates. Bermuda’s economy is much more dependent on international business and all of the other business that flows from it, and here the picture is less positive.The headline figure in the Quarterly Bulletin should be employment income, which decreased by 4.6 percent compared to the third quarter of 2010. This is the first time this figure had dropped since it did so for four consecutive periods in 2009. Worse, it fell in every single category, again for the first time since 2009. For the year to date, employment income remains ahead of 2010, but the downturn is worrying.There may be several reasons for it. One is that construction income remains a fraction of what it was during the construction boom, and the increase in construction activity (driven in part by the new hospital) only served to maintain income at slightly less than in 2010, not to increase it in a meaningful way.But international business income also fell. Although this is affected by extraordinary payments like bonuses, and may also have been adjusted upwards when the ceiling on payroll taxes was raised (the figures are drawn from payroll tax returns), the fact it fell is worrying.At least one reason must be the quiet and not so quiet downsizing that has been occurring in many international companies, along with the departures of several key executives.And although the number of company incorporation rose over the same quarter in 2010, the actual number of companies registered in Bermuda fell below 17,000 for the first time since 2007, presumably due to liquidations and companies redomiciling. That’s a bad sign, although this statistic is a barometer of the state of the economy.The real benefit to the economy lies in the number of people working in Bermuda and the money they spend on the economy. There the picture is equally gloomy. Import fell for the 12th time in the last 13 quarters. And the weakness of the retail sector has already been well documented.What does all of this mean? As stated in the Premier’s Pre-Budget statement, the likelihood is more pain and job losses. Indeed, the recent closure of Arnold’s Tile shows that the construction slump is now affecting service industries and suppliers, while the job losses at hedge fund administrators show that Bermuda remains uncompetitive.Those who may have been hoping that a hardening reinsurance market would lead to job gains in that sector are likely to be disappointed as well.Although it appears that rates did increase, it does not seem to be enough to cause a major upswing, and in any event, many reinsurers have stated they will be adding jobs elsewhere, but not in Bermuda.