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P2P programs: Music to a marketing man's ear

Madonna

To get an idea of how fast file sharing networks are growing, take a look at Download.com's weekly chart of popular software programs.

Four of the top ten downloads last week are file sharing programs. While ad remover Ad-Aware remains the number one download, it is followed by iMesh, a peer-to-peer (P2P) file sharing program. LimeWire, another P2P, was the sixth most popular download, followed by Morpheus and BitComet.

These programs make it quick and easy to search, discover and download files from P2P file sharing networks. P2P networks allow the direct connection between several computers and the transfer of files between them.

Despite the disclaimers of their makers and the networks they connect to, these programs are used most often to share illegal copies of copyrighted music, movies and software.

Statistics released by media tracker BigChampagne indicate that the average number of simultaneous, individual connections to P2P networks increased to about nine million by June 2005, a 2.6 per cent increase over May, and a 20.1 per cent jump over June 2004.

Get it? Nine million people at any one time are a marketer's dream and a record company's nightmare. As broadband use continues to expand, P2P can only become more popular.

Music accounted for 74.3 per cent of the total download, "other videos" 8.9 per cent and movie files two per cent.

Such mass flockings to P2P sites occur despite the threat of civil prosecution. Last month's ruling by the US Supreme Court against Grokster was at first interpreted as a blow to the growth of P2P.

The US Supreme Court sent the case back to the lower courts, allowing MGM to sue Grokster for damages.

However, after reading the fine print most commentators now see the decision as a victory of sorts. Judges refused to make a general ruling as MGM wanted. Instead they made a narrow decision limited to Grokster. Justice David Souter wrote that file sharing networks and software programmers must actively promote copyright infringement to fall afoul of the law. Since most sites and programs bend over backwards to disclaim responsibility, companies will continue to launch suits against individuals, a long, painful and expensive process for both sides. Last month the RIAA issued a new wave of lawsuits against 784 individual file uploaders, bringing the total number to about 12,000 since the music association began its legal campaign in September 2003. The OECD has also stepped into the fray, issuing a report last month on the music downloading phenomena.

The stats are interesting.

In 2003, sales of recorded music amounted to $32 billion with the OECD countries accounting for about 94 per cent of the market. After a period of sustained growth, the music industry's revenues fell by 20 percent from 1999 to 2003.

The OECD is loath to make a conclusion, but I'm not.

Couple that information with the fact that legal online sales are on the rise. By the end of 2004, there were 230 sites offering more than one million tracks online. During 2004, more than 200 million songs were downloaded from legitimate services, up from 20 million the previous year. While this accelerating growth is a minuscule part of overall music sales, to me the trend proves that given the opportunity, most people would rather pay what they see as a fair price rather than download an illegal copy.

The OECD also noted that 2004 might effectively have marked the year when the majority of declining OECD music markets experienced a turnaround in music sales.

Improved economic conditions, slower growth in piracy and the emergence of authorised digital distribution services are factors expected to contribute to the recovery.

"This recovery process may also have been sustained by the drop in CD prices," the OECD noted. Global sales of recorded music ? audio and music video ? grew by 1.7 percent in units and fell 1.3 percent in value in the first half of 2004, compared to the same period in 2003.

Are we seeing the era of fairer music prices? If so then the music oligopoly can only be driven by the competition of free.

Still the music industry has a long way to go before realising their world has changed.

Meanwhile artists, who collect about ten per cent of a CD's sale price, are divided about the impact of unauthorised file-sharing, the OECD notes. Surveys indicate some believe that free music downloading online has helped their career, others are indifferent and others argue that it has harmed it.

Madonna has made her position clear. Just before the launch of her last album, she released some of its tracks onto a P2P networks. Downloaders got the start of the song until the foul mouthed star cut in with "What the **** do you think you are doing...?"