On the other hand, no dramatic change might take place at all.

Although either scenario is possible, Government's Central Policy Unit is urging residents to help prevent the worst case from occurring ? suggesting that their opinions will lay a framework which will see Bermuda develop an environment better suited to the needs of the entire population.

The idea is in keeping with plans being drawn by members of the United Nations in accordance with that organisation's World Summit on Sustainable Development in Johannesburg, South Africa, in 2002.

"Bermuda can either walk blindly into the future with no plan, not thinking about what's likely to come, or it can plan the future," said Ross Andrews, project co-ordinator of the Sustainable Development team which operates under the auspices of the Central Policy Unit.

"It's not as if Bermuda has never planned the future ? you've already got the Development Plan, you've already got financial planning, you've got pension planning, you've got all sorts of things, but I think (the Sustainable Development Project) is responding to what a lot of people in Bermuda have said, that Bermuda has changed a lot recently.

"People are talking about development. They talk about traffic. They talk about anti-social behaviour. They talk about impacts on the environment. They talk about saying hello to each other in the street ? there's many, many changes. What we're saying is that change is inevitable, it's how you manage that change."

Mr. Andrews is the leader of a five-member team hired by Government to help find the best balance between preservation and economic opportunity for the island.

A former consultant for the Department of the Environment and Rural Affairs in the United Kingdom, he spent the last two years helping them implement international sustainable development programmes as outlined by the United Nations' 2002 summit. He has also lent his expertise to the United Nations.

Assisting Mr. Andrews in his Bermuda challenge are Erica Smith from the Department of Planning, Charles Clarke from the Ministry of Tourism & Transport, Melinda Williams from the Department of Statistics and junior policy analyst Leila Wadson, formerly involved in grassroots sustainable development work in Southern Africa and Washington, DC.

The group is now canvassing all sectors of the island ? the wealthy, the poor, whites, blacks, imprisoned, ill-educated, locals and expatriates ? to determine what about it residents want to see changed and what they feel important to maintain.

"Bermuda has to decide how it wants to manage its future," Mr. Andrews added. "What we've been asking is, 'Do we play chess with the future or do we play roulette with the future?' If you have anti-social behaviour, that's linked to economic opportunity, it's linked to wider society, it's linked to culture, it's linked to education.

"If you look at environmental issues, they're linked to how society interacts with the environment, how people interact with each other. Everything is linked.

"We need to go back to the beginning and look at the structural issues ? how everything fits together ? and see what needs to be done to prepare Bermuda for the next 20 years.

"Many people are telling us that if they can't own a piece of the rock, if they don't see a career progression before them in Bermuda, they will leave. If you talk to your younger, middle-class, educated couples in Bermuda, you find a lot of people who think that they should be able to own property and can see that anywhere else they would be able to ? they can't in Bermuda.

"They're all thinking of leaving. One of the nightmare scenarios is that Bermuda turns into a retirement home. Young people can't afford to earn property so they leave and work elsewhere. There's no one who's Bermudian who's prepared to take the wages of say, a pot cleaner, and so you have a load of old Bermudians, guest workers and fractional owners being looked after by a load of non-Bermudians.

"There's a big gap between rich and poor and there's no middle class ? they've all left. Now that's a caricature. I don't think that would ever happen like that but that's one of the possible caricatures."

Another "doomsday scenario", he suggested, is where international business head elsewhere because of better opportunity and climate change causes sea levels to rise and the temperatures to drop, taking away tourism.

"Residents, however, have developed habits which demand high levels of foreign currency ? cars, DVD players, etc.," he pointed out, "so you're still importing loads of stuff, but there's no foreign currency coming in to pay for it. So the country's getting poorer and poorer."

Rather than wait and see what happens 20 years down the road, Ms Wadson and Ms Smith agreed that the best plan is to meet the challenge head on.

"If you look, historically we've done pretty well," Ms Wadson pointed out. "We've lucked out time and time again. So maybe we would continue to be lucky. But maybe we wouldn't."

Added Ms Smith: "I think in economic terms, the gap between rich and poor would continue to get wider ? with (certain) careers, I think it it would be difficult to find Bermudians to take those jobs.

"If you feel that going into a profession is not going to meet your needs with regards to housing, the cost of living and all of that, you're just not going to go into that career path. So with middle-income careers such as police officers, teachers, nurses, there's just not going to be a lot of interest."