Bermuda should experience a further dramatic slump in visitor numbers and hotel occupancy next year, Government's principal economic policy advisor Andrew Brimmer predicted yesterday.

Dr Brimmer estimated visitor numbers will fall by 12.5 percent next year, following an expected 15.8 cent slump for this year.

This would mean total air and sea arrivals dropping from 543,126 in 2000 to 457,312 this year, and 400,148 next year - a total decline of 26.3 percent, or 142,978 visitors, between 2000 and 2002.

He said Bermuda Hotel Association (BHA) is also making a gloomy prediction that occupancy levels for the first six months of next year will be 15 percent down against the same period this year.

BHA is also predicting occupancy levels for this year will be down 20 percent on last year - a loss of 263,110 room nights.

Shadow tourism minister David Dodwell said last night that he thought Dr. Brimmer's figures were over-optimistic, and visitor arrivals this year are more likely to be at least 20 percent off. And he said the economic overview from Dr. Brimmer should have been given by Finance Minister Eugene Cox around three months ago, just after September 11.

BHA president William (Billy) Griffith said he was not surprised by the predictions and warned that next year will be tough. But he said business may pick up from the United States if the Afghanistan conflict is resolved.

Dr. Brimmer told Bermuda International Business Association: “The tourism-related sector has been severely affected by fewer visitors and the reduced levels of visitor spending.

“The already emerging difficulties in this sector were further compounded by the events of 9/11. These negative effects are expected to help shape economic activity during the first six months of 2002.

“For example, the BHA has forecast occupancy levels for the first half of 2002 to be 15 percent for the below those for the comparable period in 2001.”

But he said the Bermuda Alliance for Tourism was “vigorously” targeting New York, Washington, Philadelphia, Boston and Atlanta.

Mr. Dodwell told The Royal Gazette last night: “We didn't learn anything we didn't already know about the bad shape of the hospitality industry.

“I think Dr Brimmer's numbers for this year have got to be off. By June arrivals were already down 16 percent and I would think we will be down at least 20 percent. We need reliable information.

“I would think we will be doing extremely well if arrival figures are down ten percent for the first six months of next year. This is a speech that should have been made by the Minister of Finance about three months ago within weeks of September 11.

“We've had virtually no information for months then we get this deluge of figures and it is frustrating to have had to wait this long.

“That prediction of a 1.5 percent decline in Gross Domestic Product for 2002 is a very, very worrying figure and the community needs to understand what impact that will have on our economy.

“The real question is what are we going to be doing to get us back on the US radar. We should be working almost exclusively on the eastern seaboard so we go fishing where the fish is.”

Mr. Griffith said: “We were behind before September 11 and we lost 25,000 rooms through to next June, or $5 million in revenue, immediately afterwards.

“My initial reaction is that I'm not at all surprised about these numbers. I am under no illusions that this will be turned around quickly and we will need to be more conservative in our predictions for next year. These are tough times ahead.

“A 12-15 percent decline in arrivals is not unrealistic, but we could see a rebound early in the year because we have already seen a gradual pick-up in business.

“And if there is a resolution of the conflict in Afghanistan, we could see an immediate pick up in business in the US.”