Sinking popularity
One poll does not make a politician’s career, and it doesn’t break it either.But Premier Paula Cox and the Progressive Labour Party should be concerned about the rapid drop in popularity of both the Premier and the party in the latest polls from MindMaps, which ran in The Royal Gazette last week.There are several mitigating factors, and a drop in popularity in the wake of the Budget was to be expected. Nor could Ms Cox reasonably expect her traditionally high poll numbers to remain there as she took lead responsibility for decisions which were bound to disappoint some people. So the Budget, with its spending cuts, was bound to hurt her and the Government’s popularity, especially in her dual role as Premier and Finance Minister.And as the economy worsens, people are bound to hold the leader of the Country responsible, especially when she has been the Finance Minister as well. Ms Cox has benefited to some degree from being all things to all people, or by having people project their hopes on to her. As she governs, this is less likely to happen.If the economy begins to improve this year, and there are early signs of some gains, it may be that both the Premier’s and the Government’s popularity will improve. Certainly they can take comfort from the fact that the United Bermuda Party’s standing did not improve in the same period and the Bermuda Democratic Alliance’s popularity actually fell.That does not mean the PLP should not be worried. There are problems, and they need to be dealt with. One area where the Opposition has been effective is in pinning responsibility for the current economic downturn on the Government and its policies of the last six or so years, and with good reason.Ms Cox is in double trouble on this, because she was Finance Minister for that period, and she remains so. By definition, Finance Ministers in recessions are unpopular because they have to take hard decisions. But this newspaper believes, as it did with former Premiers Dame Jennifer Smith and Dr Ewart Brown, that the Premier should not hold a second major portfolio, whether it is Education, Tourism or Finance. Despite Bermuda’s small size, it is not feasible and it leads to flaws in the management of government.The Premier needs to be the chief executive officer of Bermuda and he or she cannot do that if they are distracted by the day to day management of a Ministry. Nor can they regard all Ministries with an unbiased eye. They will always see their’s differently.So now, with the Budget over, Ms Cox should give up the Finance Ministry and concentrate on being Premier.This will also help to clarify the management of Government. David Burch’s resignation as National Security Minister and Government Senate Leader came about in part because of confusion about Ms Cox’s role. She said she wanted to leave Ministers to do their jobs, as a chairman of a company might, but then went directly to one of the departments, the Police, which Mr Burch was responsible for, thus forcing his resignation. Ms Cox needs to decide if she is going to be a chairwoman of Cabinet, or its CEO.That would also help to set a direction for Government, when there is a wide perception that there is no real plan for getting Bermuda out of recession and growing again. As Premier, Ms Cox needs to set that direction and bring her Government and the community with her. She may have a plan to do that, but it is not clear what it is.That’s not to say there is no action in Government, but holding press conferences to promote disease awareness or the implementation of a new speed bump, gives an impression of busyness, not productive work aimed at improving Bermuda.