New Bermuda Hotel Association president Michael Winfield yesterday poured cold water on suggestions the Island could see a jump in visitor arrivals this year of up to 20 percent.

In March, former Tourism Minister Renee Webb said Government was revising its predictions of visitors up from seven percent to 18 percent because hoteliers were recording their strongest bookings in seven years.

The United Bermuda Party said the Island would need a 20 percent hike on 2003, when numbers fell by 0.5 percent, partly due to Hurricane Fabian, to 487,318.

But Mr. Winfield said yesterday: "I would be very surprised if 2004 was 20 percent ahead of last year because if you look at the results of the first five months of the year, visitor arrivals are down.

"I think that June and July have been reasonable months, but two good months don't make a good year. In August there is still room, and September is low.

"There is a lot of work to be done and a lot of work that is being done. But I don't think Bermuda tourism and Bermuda hotels are out of the woods yet and no one should be taking a huge sigh of relief.

"This is an election year in the US and and we traditionally suffer a visitor arrival pattern (of less visitors) in Bermuda. Americans don't like to be too far away and there is also the current psyche that Americans will probably be even less willing to travel."

While total arrivals for the year to May are down 3.9 percent to 134,592, there was good news on the air arrivals front, with a four percent jump in June to 55,116.

Airport Operations manager James Howes said with increased lift from gateway cities such as New York, New Jersey, Boston, Fort Lauderdale, Philadelphia and Baltimore, as well as new destinations in Chicago and Orlando, Mr. Howes said there will be an increase traffic in the next few months with several flights already sold out.

The figures were welcomed by Tourism and Transport Minister Ewart Brown.

"We are delighted to announce this increase in our actual passenger counts for the month of June, compared to our pre-Fabian numbers last year," said Dr. Brown.

"Government has worked hard to improve airlift by adding more flights from our key gateway cities, as well as introducing new flights.