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Brown sets the date

Premier Dr. Ewart Brown (right) acknowledges a salute from a Bermuda Regiment officer as he leads Opposition Leader Michael Dunkley into the Cabinet Building for the reading of the 2007 Throne Speech by Acting Governor Mark Capes yesterday.<a href="http://www.theroyalgazette.com/siftology.royalgazette/Video/video.jsp?video=Election.wmv"><img align="right" src="http://www.theroyalgazette.com/siftology.royalgazette/ads/rg%20gifs/video_logo.jpg" /></a>

Premier Ewart Brown fired the starting gun on a marathon seven-week election campaign yesterday just hours after unveiling a Throne speech which promised help for those wanting to buy homes and get an education.

Shunning the usual press conference the Premier announced his election call on a video on the PLP website after boasting about the Government's record on tourism and pledging to do more for seniors and education.

He said: "Know well that this will be an election between those who would take our country backwards and a Party that will move our country forward… forward to a future of success for your children, a future of comfort for our seniors — an improved quality of life for us all."

The election will take place on December 18.

Yesterday Opposition leader Michael Dunkley welcomed the election announcement but claimed Dr. Brown had put his own interests first by cutting and running to stave off dissenters in his own party gearing up to oust him.

The election announcement comes after a controversial week which has seen Dr. Brown's Government suffer a third and final defeat in its bid to gag the press from releasing further revelations from Police files into the Bermuda Housing Corporation scandal which had revealed senior PLP figures including Dr. Brown had been investigated.

This week former MP Trevor Woolridge called on Dr. Brown to resign while backbencher Renee Webb said he was a liability.

Mr. Dunkley said: "I think the Premier was backed into a corner — he called the election today because he knew he had no choice... because his colleagues were gunning for him, they were going to take him out."

This week Dr. Brown had urged colleagues to unite in an e-mail leaked to this paper where he said: "There will be plenty of time for you to attempt leadership changes AFTER the victory, but let's get the victory first!"

The PLP got rid of leader Jennifer Smith hours after she took the party to its second general election victory in 2003 in a coup involving Dr. Brown who lost out to Alex Scott in the bid for the top job.

Mr. Scott was then ousted by Dr. Brown in a leadership challenge at the 2006 PLP delegates conference.

In its second term the PLP have led in most opinion polls, just as they did prior to their 2003 win, although a summer Research.bm poll put the opposition UBP ahead of the PLP 40 percent to 34 percent, with 26 percent of respondents undecided.

However the PLP remain quietly confident after a recent internal poll handed in to party bosses this week.

Whatever the figures say Bermuda's small seats and tiny majorities leave plenty of room for upsets for organised parties and strong candidates meaning voters could be in for another nail-biting night when December 18 rolls around.

Last time around the PLP won 22 seats to the UBP's 14, however if 80 people had voted for the UBP in five key seats the UBP would have won.

It is make or break for United Bermuda Party leader Michael Dunkley who has launched a do-or-die bid to take the PLP seat Smith's North currently held by Patrice Minors.

It is eighth on the UBP's list of target seats and if Mr. Dunkley wins it he will likely be Premier, if he loses it then his party could well be in Opposition again as they start the hunt for yet another leader.

Perversely if the UBP wins just the minimum five seats it needs for a majority it could find itself looking for a new leader before it is able to form a Government if Mr. Dunkley's risky personal gamble fails.

The UBP must add six seats to its current tally of 13 to form a majority in parliament. It should easily pick up Pembroke West, held by defector Jamahl Simmons who is retiring, while it should make gains in St. George's where the PLP is clinging on by its fingernails in three seats. Warwick is another key battleground. However the UBP will do well to winkle popular PLP MP Dale Butler from Warwick North East while Alex Scott, who has a 96 vote majority in Warwick South East, looks well entrenched.

The UBP plan also requires turfing out Community and Cultural Affairs Minister Wayne Perinchief in Pembroke Central and Glenn Blakeney in Devonshire North Central MP.

Premier Ewart Brown has openly talked of the PLP trying to pick up 30 of the 36 seats — up from the 22 it presently holds.

Suzann Roberts-Holshouser looks vulnerable in St. David's with her 15-vote majority as does David Dodwell who won by 20 votes in Southampton East Central last time around.

Wayne Furbert could also be on the critical list in Hamilton West — traditionally a weather vane constituency — while the PLP will be looking to make inroads in Hamilton South where Opposition MP Maxwell Burgess is stepping down.

Trevor Moniz in Smith's West and Jon Brunson in Southampton West Central are also being targeted as the PLP aim to effectively wipe out the UBP as a viable electoral force.

However the PLP's dream of getting 30 seats begins to look doubtful given the large majorities enjoyed by the UBP's remaining MPs.