St. George's North

PLP seat. Majority: 8. Candidates Jennifer Smith PLP, Kenny Bascome UBP.

Simmons: Jennifer Smith will win with 50-plus votes. She has had five years to focus on her constituency and has been highly visible on the grassroots level. The mood of the people is very different from the mood during the 2003 election with less of a "let's bring her down a notch," attitude being displayed by voters. Never underestimate the tenacity of this former Premier who fought for so long to take this seat from the UBP.

Jeffers: "I believe Kenny Bascome could pull it off this time, I mean he lost last time to Jennifer by eight votes when she was Premier. He really works hard in the community and has been working hard on the Corporation of St. George's where he is deputy mayor. He really does promote and push for St. George's. I believe this could be one of the surprises.

UBP source: "Smith will hang on by at least double digits. The question of her leadership style which played some role last time isn't an issue now and certainly the people in St. George's have had a voice in her over the years."

PLP dissident: "Close but Jennifer is a real warhorse down there, she knows how to hold on to a constituency. I think she could just hold on."

St George's West

PLP seat. Majority: 22. Candidates Dean Foggo PLP, Kim Swan UBP.

Simmons: Too close to call — pair a low profile soft-spoken incumbent with a fiery high profile UBP Senator and you have a steel cage match for the ages. Foggo has the edge with tremendous family and church connections combined with a friendly inoffensive demeanour. Foggo's other advantage is the small amount of white voters (approx. 20 percent) in the area. Kim Swan however has done the work and has maintained a high profile while staying clear of controversy but will need all of the UBP base to come out, low PLP voter turnout or draw 20 percent-plus of the black vote.

Jeffers: "I believe Kim Swan's time might have come. I read Foggo's article (in a Royal Gazette constituency profile) and to me it was almost like a desperate plea."

UBP source: "Swan will win by double digits because Foggo has never really come into his own both on the floor of the House and with his work level in the constituency.

PLP dissident: "Kim is going to take it this time. He's worked it hard. I don't think Dean has been a real firebrand down there in any way."

St David's.

UBP seat. Majority: 15. Candidates: Suzann Holshouser UBP, Lovitta Foggo PLP

Simmons: Lovitta Foggo will win by fewer than 50 votes. In 2003 incumbent and household name Suzann Holshouser barely scraped over the finish line against a non-St. David's islander who some insiders say only started canvassing in the last two weeks of the campaign. Demographic changes combined with Foggo's family connections and work on the doorstep should see her scrape through. The incumbent's relentless community focus should not be underestimated however despite her unimpressive national profile.

Jeffers: "I think Lovitta Foggo is going to win." He said her local connections should tip it her way. "Suzann Holshouser has been the champion of the people but I believe the popularity of Lovitta Foggo there might be enough to win it. She's from the St. George's area, has been in the community a long time. Remember they had Sean Tucker who wanted to run, and they polled but I guess people down there said he's a lawyer and well known, but they went for her instead of him. That was a very interesting one. I didn't expect it. Whether they are right or wrong time will tell. I think that's one of the seats the UBP could lose."

UBP source: "Holshouser is gone. I think Foggo is going to beat her, she's been working hard canvassing and being involved in the community."

PLP dissident: "If the family connection works, Miss Foggo will take it. But I also know St. David's Islanders are very conservative and there is a large disaffected population down there so I would see that remaining with Suzann Holshouser."

St. George's South

PLP seat. Majority: 8. Candidates: Phil Perinchief PLP, Donte Hunt UBP.

Simmons: Too close to call. Donte Hunt has the home court advantage due to his family connections and has also been canvassing for at least a year already. He lacks a strong national profile however and has not been given a high profile or a tangible issue to champion by the campaign. Phil Perinchief, while not from the area is a veteran of numerous campaigns, should be able to attract traditional PLP voters turned off by outgoing MP Renee Webb. Due to the racial demographics (almost 70 percent black) Hunt will have to rely on the UBP getting out its white base and either a low turnout for the PLP or drawing 15 — 20 percent of the black vote to win.

Jeffers: "Renee Webb didn't win by a big majority last time and she was a very outspoken visible person. Donte might have his youth and inexperience against him. Right now the PLP has it, but it one of the harder ones to call. If I had to say, it would be Donte Hunt might win it."

UBP source: "I think Phil Perinchief will win it by double digits. He's done the work canvassing and is committed to working for his constituency and being a Cabinet minister, something Renee Webb did not do after the election and came very close to paying the full price for. Donte is a very nice fellow, of great promise but I don't think that's enough to get him over the hill."

PLP dissident: "Donte. I don't even think that's even open for debate. Renee barely made it last time. It's not demographically a PLP stronghold. Phil Perinchief — he's had the whole mess of the BHC. Some real strange things he's done as Attorney General, the Workforce Equity bill, had to go through him. He's too closely affiliated with Ewart and his administration and that is the administration people want to get rid of. I don't really think he's known down there or done the work. The UBP has put the work in."

Hamilton East

All pundits tip PLP incumbent Derrick Burgess to win

Hamilton West

UBP seat. Majority: 61. Candidates Wayne Furbert UBP, Charles Clarke PLP

Simmons: Too close to call. History and demographics are not on Wayne Furbert's side. No incumbent has been returned to office in this area since at least 1985. The constituency has about a 30 percent white population requiring for yet another UBP candidate a high turnout by his base combined with either a low PLP turnout or drawing at least 20 percent of the black vote.

Will voters punish him for his short lived and ill fated stint as UBP leader or will his crying exit and claims of being undermined by his colleagues generate the belief that he has been punished enough?

Jeffers: "Wayne Furbert should hold it. Charles Clarke is a nice guy but I don't regard him as a political heavyweight."

UBP source: "It's a crap shoot — a dead heat at the moment. Clarke comes from a good family, hard workers, entrepreneurial, spiritual, good Christian family. He's someone the Government can use and they way the UBP has treated Wayne Furbert will cause voters to wonder his worth in the party going forward."

PLP dissident: "Wayne started that foolishness, that whinging and whining about how 'my party didn't support me'. But it's also a strong family parish. If he's done his constituency work Wayne should retain it. I don't think anyone wants to go with an unknown right now. The Clarkes aren't really Hamilton Parish people so I will go with Wayne again. Hamilton Parish is the bible belt. This BHC business will hurt them down there."

Hamilton South

UBP seat. Majority: 106. Candidates: Darius Tucker UBP, Wayne Caines PLP

Simmons: Wayne Caines will win with fewer than 50 votes. Were Maxwell Burgess running this would be a walk in the park for the UBP as Burgess possessed the unique ability to be one of the most outspoken critics of the PLP while at the same time drawing heavily from the PLP's traditional base to achieve victory. His criticism of the UBP could not have been helpful to the his replacement's cause. Darius Tucker has been working the constituency for many years but lacks the stature, national profile and drawing power of his predecessor. Caines has his work cut out for him but if he get's out the PLP base and taps into Burgess' old support base he should steal this seat from the UBP.

Jeffers: "This is interesting — two newcomers. If Tucker is from the area, is branch chairman and Maxwell works with him he will probably take it."

UBP source: "Darius Tucker will win it. He has a doorstep mannerism second only to the old Flip Galloway. He can probably maintain the margin Maxwell Burgess had in the 2003 election."

PLP dissident: "I think Wayne Caines could get it because they are two unknowns so they will go with one with more of a profile. He's pretty popular and he's got the Devil's Hole group."

Smith's South

All pundits predict incumbent Cole Simons to retake seat.

Smith's West

UBP seat. Majority: 109. Candidates Trevor Moniz UBP, Larry Mussenden PLP

Simmons: Trevor Moniz will win but it's one to watch as Moniz' 2003 victory over political newcomer Scott Simmons was unimpressive.

Jeffers: "Remember all the fuss with Trevor Moniz, the UBP wanted to get rid of him ages ago. But every time they did the polls they knew if they touched him they could probably lose it. That's why he is still there, because he's a maverick but I think people like him like that. I don't think Mussenden has the wherewithal."

UBP source: "Mussenden will close the gap but Moniz will win."

PLP dissident: "We won't even discuss that. Trevor will take it."

Tomorrow: How the centre will be won — our pundits put Devonshire and Pembroke and Southampton under the microscope.