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Tyco likely to meet Q1 earnings estimates

BOSTON (Dow Jones News) -- Despite concerns over its accounting methods, Bermuda-based Tyco International Ltd. is expected to meet or exceed fiscal first quarter earnings estimates on the strength of aggressive cost cutting and better than anticipated revenue from acquisitions.

A First Call/Thomson Financial survey of 16 analysts showed a consensus earnings estimate of 45 cents per share for the quarter, which ended on December 31, and fiscal 2000 earnings at $2.12 per share.

"We have stated that we are comfortable'' with the estimates, said J. Brad McGee, a Tyco spokesman.

The company expects to release earnings on January 18, he said.

With its share price down some 31 percent over the calendar fourth quarter, several analysts rate Tyco a screaming "buy.'' "It's our No. 1 pick (for 2000) in the multi-industry/diversified category,'' said Jack L. Kelly of Goldman Sachs & Co. "We think it's at least a $60 stock.'' Tyco, a manufacturing conglomerate based in Hamilton, but with headquarters in Exeter, New Hampshire, saw its share price tumble after a money manager questioned its accounting practices of acquisitions in October and the company revealed in early December that the Securities and Exchange Commission was conducting an informal inquiry into those procedures.

In the fourth quarter of 1999, Tyco shares tumbled to a low of $22.50 on December 9, from $53.871/2 the first week of October.

The stock has been on a steady rise since the December 9 low and closed yesterday at $37.371/2 on the New York Stock Exchange.

Tyco split its stock 2-for-1 on October 1. Kelly said Goldman Sachs pegs earnings per share at 44 cents "but the typical pattern for Tyco has been to exceed analysts' estimate, so it may be a penny or two higher''.

Also concurring is Wendy Caplan, of ING Baring Furman Selz, who said earnings "will be very strong'' at about 44 cents per share. "But, if history is any lesson, they will beat consensus by a penny or two'' due to aggressive cost cutting and revenue from recent acquisitions slightly better than expected.

Caplan said her firm expects Tyco's earnings per share to be $2.15 for next fiscal year, ending at September 30, 2000, and at $2.25 for calendar year 2000.

Tyco has been on a multi-billion-dollar acquisition binge over the last few years, including the $11 billion purchase of AMP Inc. and the $2.8 billion buy of Raychem Corp. this year.

Its application of the pooling-of-interest method of accounting for its many such deals is at the crux of the controversy. New York securities analysts said Tyco is clean.

"The accusations about accounting irregularities and the SEC inquiry have nothing to do with earnings,'' said Caplan. "I don't think the allegations are related to the (profit and loss statement) at all,'' but the accusations clearly spooked some investors, she said.

Inch said that short-sellers have contended that the company's business model doesn't work, and that it has to keep acquiring profitable companies to mask those issues.

But he said a recent analysis by his firm proved those allegations wrong. "We benchmarked their cash-flow returns and compared them to the average of its peers,'' including General Electric Co.

"A red flag would have been a declining trend, and one would have expected to see the returns trend declining'' if some of the allegations were true, he said. "But we don't see that at all,'' said Inch. "Not only were returns comparable to historical levels back to 1994, their returns are accelerating and higher than those of its peers.

"There is no way to fudge this stuff; our study proves it and that (Tyco's) acquisition model is working in a big way,'' Inch said.