Analysts are puzzled by share prices
linked to the independence debate is debatable, according the Island's financial analysts.
"I think it (the overall decline) is an emotional response to the verbal bantering between the chairman of the Bank of Butterfield and the Premier,'' said Mr. Robert Pires, chairman of Bermuda Investment Advisory Services.
Bank Chairman Mr. Eldon Trimingham and Premier the Hon. Sir John Swan have recently traded comments around the impact independence will have on one of the twin pillars of the Bermuda economy, the Island's international business sector.
"We have a pro-business party battling with the leading business on the Island,'' added Mr. Pires.
The BSE index closed up 11.85 points to 1,045.10 yesterday, but it has been steadily declining since October, 1993, according to Mr. Pires who added the slide started after the last election and the post-election independence debate.
The BSE's most recent week to week slide started late last year when it hovered around the 1,100 mark.
The debate generating uncertainty about the future has made businesses and investors "uncomfortable'' which has lead to lower share prices on the market. Any type of uncertainty makes investors "uncomfortable'', Mr. Pires continued.
The recent "anti-business'' Budget could also be a factor in shaking confidence, he conjectured.
Mrs. Anne Kast, president of Kast Investment Management Ltd., agreed that the independence debate has generated some uncertainly in the local stock market.
"A major factor like Independence can create instability,'' she added. The decline in the index may also be linked to the trend of eased exchange controls from the Bermuda Monetary Authority giving investors more options, she explained.
But Mr. Graham Jack, head of Bermuda Financial Services, a division of the Bank of Bermuda's investment division, said the decline in the index has little to do with independence and is more likely linked to poor global investment climate that until recently plagued world markets.
If independence were an issue "we would be flooded with sell orders but that is not the case,'' he said.
"Bermudians traditionally use the local stock market as a form of savings account and are typically long-term holders,'' he said. This continues to be the case, he alluded.
He noted the amounts being traded are small amounts and pointed to the initial positive response to the new Staples Holdings Ltd. IPO (initial public offering) as well as other IPOs as evidence investor interest in Bermuda securities remains high. See story, Page 15 .
Share prices for the Bank of Bermuda, as well as the Bank of Butterfield, have declined in recent months, based on the final day's trading.
The Bank of Bermuda represents 40.5 percent of the 20-constituent index while the Bank of Butterfield has a weighing of 25.8 percent.
Ms Carolyn Hall, managing director at Gulf Stream Securities Ltd., said she felt volumes traded on the BSE were so low it is hard to glean a trend.
"I do not get the feeling investors are showing less confidence in Bermuda,'' she said, referring to whether or not the overall decline in the index was linked to the Independence debate.