Swiss Re: 1821 hurricane would cost insurers $107b today
The impact of a hurricane far more devastating than the 2012 superstorm Sandy is the subject of a report by reinsurer Swiss Re.
In the year 1821 on September 3, an estimated category three or four hurricane made landfall in North Carolina and careered up the American east coast, hitting the city of New York. Norfolk, New Haven, Philadelphia and Newark also bore the fury of this major hurricane.
According to the Swiss Re report, entitled: ‘The big one: The East Coast’s USD 100 billion hurricane event’: “If the 1821 Hurricane were to happen today it would cause 50 percent more damage than Sandy and potentially cause more than $100 billion in property losses stemming from storm surge and wind damage.”
The report concludes: “Although shattering from a surge perspective, Sandy was a relatively light wind event, with only a few reports of wind gusts above hurricane strength. The combination of an intense wind and storm surge event in the north eastern United States isn’t a hypothetical, historical archives and anecdotes report that the 1821 Norfolk Long Island Hurricane brought both powerful winds and tremendous storm surge up and down the East Coast.”
The Swiss Re report has excited interest in the US with national media coverage focusing on the costs of the event should it strike today.
The 1821 Norfolk Long Island Hurricane, which was nicknamed Redfield’s Hurricane after the scientist whose observations of the resulting storm damage led him to deduce that hurricanes were large vortexes, was the only major hurricane to ever directly hit New York City. According to reports of the time, within an hour the storm surge at Battery Park raised water levels 13 feet. This makes it the highest storm surge until Sandy, even though it made landfall at low tide.
Manhattan was flooded up to Canal Street, while hurricane winds, it was reported “threw down chimneys, unroofing buildings, and prostrating trees in various directions”.
Additionally, one newspaper reported: “When the gale was at its height it presented a most awful spectacle. The falling of slate from the roofs of buildings, and broken glass from the windows, made it unsafe for any one to venture into the streets.”
The Swiss Re report states: “Using the average storm surge loss from 1821 analogues and the wind loss calculated from the deterministic analysis, the total loss from a recurrence of the 1821 Norfolk Long Island Hurricane today would be over $107 billion.
“Currently loss estimates for Hurricane Sandy stand at $68 billion. Therefore, today, the 1821 Norfolk Long Island Hurricane would cause 50 percent more damage than Hurricane Sandy. Even assuming a ‘best-case’ storm surge scenario, with losses of $49 billion, the loss potential from the 1821 Hurricane is still in excess of Hurricane Sandy ($87 billion versus $68 billion.) Losses to the insurance industry are $75 billion, using the average of the storm surge analogue losses and deterministic wind analysis.
“The ground up loss analysis represents tangible economic losses, or physical damage. Actual economic loss would be much greater, after factoring in lost tax revenue due to destroyed homes and businesses, lower real estate values, and other economic aspects.
“A general rule of thumb is that the final economic loss is twice the insured loss; thus, the total economic impact from the 1821 Norfolk Long Island Hurricane recurrence would be $150 billion.”
The newspaper USA Today quoted Megan Linkin, a meteorologist and natural hazards expert at Swiss Re, who authored the report. “It very well could happen again,” she said. “People need to be prepared for a powerful storm surge event and a powerful wind event at the same time impacting the East Coast ...”
Category three hurricanes have top sustained winds of 111mph to 129mph, and category four storms have top sustained winds of 130mph to 156mph.
The spectre of a direct hit from a major hurricane haunts Bermuda residents every year, writes Rebecca Zuill.
And while 2003’s Hurricane Fabian is considered a serious weather event in Bermuda’s history, it is fades slightly when compared to the hurricane of 1899 which today is etched only in the memories of those who have researched weather events and Island history.
Leading environmental expert Jeremy Madeiros said that Bermuda is overdue for a hurricane that is as powerful as an 1899 storm that devastated the Island. He has just been awarded the UK’s Blue Turtle Award for his work in preserving the endangered cahow, and his ornithological expertise means he also has a deep knowledge of weather and weather patterns.
‘The West Indian Hurricane of September 8-13 1899’ destroyed the Causeway, then a fairly new structure, and caused damage throughout the Island.
A report in the Monthly Weather Review describes ‘The West Indian Hurricane of September 8-13 1899’. St Kitts and Anguilla were both impacted by the storm before it made its way into the Atlantic and to Bermuda, hitting the Island the night of September 12.
Additionally, in the report, there is a reference to a hurricane almost equally as bad, less than 20 years previously: “The storm was the worst known here since 1880; in fact many of the inhabitants say it exceeded that of 1880 in violence.”
Mr Madeiros, noting the hurricane of 1899 destroyed the Causeway, said: “We are overdue for a really big one. They normally occur two or three times a monster storm in a century.”
Monthly Weather Review reads: “A hurricane swept over this island last night. Many houses were blown down and others were unroofed. The storm raged during all of last night. No lives were lost but heavy damage was done to public and private property, fruit and cedar trees. The causeway was wrecked and the government house was damaged.”
Further damage was also described, including: “Giant cedar were uprooted, ornamental and fruit trees were destroyed and wharves were washed out to sea. All communication with St George’s was cut off and news from the western end of the island and the Dockyard is not procurable at present. The telephone and telegraph poles and wires are down, causing a total interruption of business.”
Cedar Avenue “was practically ruined, many of its trees being prostrated, and others are badly injured”.
Other damage reports included: “More than half a mile of the causeway connecting the mainland with St George’s is destroyed. It will cost 13,000 pounds to repair it. News from St George’s, received by whaleboat, says serious damage has been done there to trees, houses, etc. All the boats have been destroyed or badly injured.
“Reports from outlying parishes are slowly coming in, they all show that there has been great destruction of trees and serious injury to houses and other property.”
It concluded: “No correct estimate of the amount of damage to private property can at present be obtained, but it will be fully 100,000 pounds.”
