Log In

Reset Password
BERMUDA | RSS PODCAST

Taking stock of your portfolio

It is not an understatement to say that following any stock market activity can be the most perplexing, frustrating, (sometimes-rewarding) pasttime around.

The past six months have certainly rocked the foundation of many who thought that trading the market was a piece of cake. In spite of the seesaw gyrations in the US markets during the last six-seven weeks, we have seen little in the way of a permanent advance.

On July 8, the Dow was still around 10,600 and the NASDAQ just about 4,000 with second quarter earnings averaging lower than expected earnings.

Brokers out of money Many young "star'' investment managers who were last year were featured in the media as absolutely brilliant strategists, are out of the money and in some cases, out of a job.

Some experienced managers are also out of jobs, albeit voluntarily, as they discovered they had no answers (and no stomach) for the continued unexplainable volatility.

The famous "Tiger'' fund with Julian Robertson at the helm is one statistic.

He and his investment team made much for many for many years, only to blowup in the last eighteen months.

Those investors who were with him from the beginning realised a wonderful cumulative return; those who joined the fund later were badly damaged. I have had people here tell me privately that they lost small fortunes with the Tiger.

Funny, both George Soros and Julian Robertson were heaped with scorn by the youngblood Internet money managers, at the time they closed their funds.

Comments were made such as, "they were getting too old'', "they couldn't cut it''. But, each to his own time, the young and the glorious are now getting pink slips, too. After all when your redemptions are running higher than your cash inflows by 3 to 1, you don't have a fund to manage any more. Even the global giant Merrill Lynch has acknowledged they might cut 5.4 percent of jobs in their brokerage division. Whether this means that net redemptions are up in their funds, expenses are up in the office or upper management wants to maintain a stable profit margin is anyone's guess.

If disaster can happen to the best money managers in the business, both young and old, what chance does the average investor have "to beat the street''? For the smaller investor, this may be rather discouraging news. However, Wall Street has a tendency to generate a herd mentality; more often than not, perfectly sane, sophisticated investment managers will (and did) follow the crowd into the high-tech and Internet stock purchase euphoria.

Many smaller investors working on their own or with their investment advisors have done more than hold their heads above water. Developing a comprehensive financial plan (which includes diversified investments and strategies) and sticking to it is a very good philosophy.

An astute independent financial planner can give you powerful motivation and financial counseling to help you stay the course. If you are in the market for the long-term and don't need to cash in those additional savings, you have the leeway to wait out market swings.

It has been statistically proven historically that over the long-term the market has averaged a rate of return of 11.7 percent.

It is estimated that the numbers of pure day-traders are really only around 100,000 or so. You know the kind, glued to the monitors, never even taking time for the bathroom or food.

It's not been reported that they are all ultra-thin from stress and no food; perhaps they compensate by raiding the larder at the very end of the day (somewhere around midnight).

After all, one can actually trade 24 hours a day globally, if one should wish to become a hermit, although not necessarily a rich one. Mainstream brokerage firms want you, the online occasional investors, a group that is expected to reach 10,000,000 million in another couple of years. They aggressively offer many enticements to get your business. Service is not necessarily at the top of the list. See thestreet.com's survey.

Tools and products Every day, it seems there are new products and new trading tools to entice you into trying online investing. Tools, first.

Stock screening tools are available for free on just about every major financial Website. As easy as they are to find, they come with very little training; if you treat them as one of the tools for fundamental investing, good; but if you rely too heavily on just this data gathering mechanism, you could get burned, badly. Stock screening tools work like a data questionnaire in that you define the criteria the stock should have before you invest.

Which means you must understand what parameters to use. In order for you to receive these kinds of lagging data (so-called) the events leading up to a stock's rise may have already happened. Other more experienced investors watching the same criteria may actually short the stock (betting it will fall, remember two weeks ago column); thus, you may buy in at the high and watch it come crashing down.

Tools are just that. Helpful in making decisions but not the one ultimate answer. Otherwise, we would all be rich. Investing online could also net you, free software, free computers and free access to private networks. It depends on how much you have and how badly the broker wants to get your business.

How would you like to move your money sitting around collecting bank interest into an S&P index fund, just for a short time? You are sitting at work and you notice the stock streaming tape is rising (discretely placed on the bottom of your desktop), all major indices are having a good day. Buy clicking on an icon on your screen, you immediately transfer your entire checking account balance the fund. In an hour, as the indices continue to move up, you have made enough to hit the Harbour Front Sushi Bar with three friends; you then move your money out of the S&P fund back into the safety of your bank chequing account.

Drawbacks on S&P index cash floats: One. You think your employer is going to be happy watching you watch your funds in the market? I bet not, in fact you could be fired.

Taking stock of your portfolio Two. After moving your chequing account balance into the market (CLICK), the indices start to slide; you get called into a priority meeting WITH YOUR BOSS FOR TWO HOURS. When you come out, you have lost the balance in your checking account AND your mortgage payment! You can't complain because you were supposed to be doing your `real' job. Heard of the art of real suffering in total silence? Think this sounds farfetched? It is already happening at X.

com.

Three. Active trading funds creates accounting and tax nightmares. If you are an offshore investor filing a W-8BEN, just try redeeming your portfolio without avoiding the 31 percent withholding that many brokerage firms levy because they don't understand the US Internal Revenue Service tax code (with respect to Non-resident aliens). And guess what, they could care less, if a mistake is made. (See a future story on this abyss, called They takes your money, You makes your choice, and then you can't get it back! Our mock portfolio We aren't running the mock portfolio every week. Summer is traditionally a slow trading time; the market needs a rest, although it never stops, but we do. So, it will appear intermittently until September when a fuller tracking program that follows trading days and strategies will start.

At June 30, 2000, the mock portfolio was in positive territory showing an annualised return of around 2.3%. Both the Dow and the NASDAQ have been in negative numbers for months. Does this mean we are stock picking gurus? We did not try to be as the construction of the portfolio was geared as a teaching tool. Some stocks (such as Puma) were picked to fail to demonstrate volatility Which they did, how could they not with no real revenue for seven years? Home Depot, and Rambus have been real surprises.

I felt Home Depot should be a good solid rather boring investment, but had no idea originally that Rambus would be a keeper.

So, you never really know, no matter how much research you do.

It is said that for every five stocks, one is outstanding, three are OK, and one is a dog. The trick is to get rid of the dog before it bites you.

Under no circumstances does the information in this column represent a recommendation to buy or sell stocks or any other investments. Readers needing specific assistance should seek professional advice from their financial advisor. Martha Myron CPA is a Bermudian, a Comprehensive Financial Planner, a NASD Series 7 licensed investment broker and a US tax practitioner. She is Programming Chair for the Financial Planning Association/Bermuda. Questions may be sent to her at 234-0290 or Email: marthamyron y northrock.bm