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Roche reports 18 percent sales rise

yesterday that 1997 sales rose nearly 18 percent to 18.77 billion Swiss francs and that it expected to boost net profit for the year excluding takeover-linked provisions.

"Roche anticipates another good result for the year, with a further increase in net income expected before extraordinary provisions related to acquisitions,'' Roche said in a statement without elaborating.

Sales advanced six percent in local-currency terms, in line with most forecasts. But analysts seized on a scant four percent gain in local-currency pharmaceutical sales as particularly weak amid solid growth in the sector as a whole.

Roche non-voting certificates opened 120 Swiss francs higher at 14,370, but came off in early trading on profit-taking and switches to other pharmaceutical shares. They were up 65 francs to 14,315 francs around 1120 GMT.

"Helped by significant volume gains, Roche further expanded its market position in important segments and countries. Sales of the group's leading products continued to show positive growth, and new entries were well received in the marketplace,'' it said.

Zurich Kantonalbank said some investors may be switching into Novartis, which analysts said should report stronger sales data on January 22.

"In an industry that is growing at seven percent and when the best companies are showing double-digit growth in local currencies -- including by the way Novartis but also the best US companies -- four percent is weak,'' said Genghis Lloyd-Harris at Credit Suisse First Boston in London.

"I would describe these results as not particularly impressive,'' Lloyd-Harris said.

Gilbert Puder at Bank Sarasin in Basle said the four percent figure reflected expiry of patents, competition from generic drugs producers and delays in the introduction of Roche's innovative anti-obesity drug Xenical.

Roche temporarily withdrew its application for Xenical's approval in the United States last year to avoid having to carry a warning label that the drug has been linked to breast cancer.

Approval for the drug, which Roche expects will eventually generate more than $1 billion a year in sales, is still pending.

"The kickoff of (circulatory system drug) Posicor was also slower than expected,'' he said, suggesting the slow drugs sales would weigh on net profit growth for 1997.

But Puder was still upbeat for Roche in the medium to long term, citing its strong product pipeline, its beefed-up business in transplantation medicine, and synergies expected from its acquisition of Bermuda-registered Corange Ltd.

Roche also has no patents expiring for the next two years while it brings new products on line, Puder noted, adding he expected profit to leap by the turn of the century after years of transition in 1997 and 1998.

Bank Julius Baer's Beat Alpiger said the figures would not prompt any change in his forecast that 1997 net profit excluding integration charges would rise to around 4.2 billion Swiss francs from 3.95 billion in 1996.

He and other analysts said the key to 1997 profit figures would be how Roche builds provisions for its acquisition of Corange, on which the European Union is expected to rule by February 13.

Analysts said they expected Roche to charge the integration costs against 1997 results, but said it was still not entirely clear how this would work.

Estimates of charges ranged from 500 million francs to as high as two billion.

Lloyd-Harris said he expected the EU to order some divestitures and to tell Roche to licence more broadly its polymerase chain reaction (PCR) technology.