The 1990 capital punishment referendum can be used to help gauge the success or failure of the Opposition's Independence referendum boycott campaign, a Progressive Labour Party spokesman said this week.

"The campaign will certainly be very definitely a success if there is less of a turn-out than existed for the referendum on capital punishment,'' Mr. Alex Scott MP said.

"That is probably the only benchmark Bermuda has of any similar description.'' Only 32.6 percent of the electorate turned out for the 1990 plebiscite, with 78.4 percent of those who voted wishing to retain the death penalty.

Asked if he would consider the campaign a failure if the turn-out on August 15 was higher than in the capital punishment vote, Mr. Scott said that would be "one way to measure'' how many supporters heeded the PLP boycott call.

Mr. Scott, who chairs the PLP's referendum campaign committee, said if voter turn-out was higher than in 1990, "I certainly would want to see what the political pundits attribute the turn-out to.'' Basically, he felt the campaign would be a success as long as Premier the Hon.

Sir John Swan did not get the "yes'' vote he was looking for.

"We've done all kinds of mathematics, and there's no way in our judgment that Mr. Swan can get a yes,'' he said.

Despite that, the PLP is spending "five figures'' on its boycott campaign, recently sending supporters letters from Opposition Leader Mr. Frederick Wade urging "a sizable donation''.

As well as appeals to supporters for funds, letters are being sent to various groups and to the community at large, he said.

Literature urging supporters to abstain from the referendum had been printed.

Audio-visual tapes have been produced of speeches by Mr. Wade and Dr. Eva Hodgson at Independence boycott campaign rallies. And while the tapes were being sold, the price did not cover all production costs, Mr. Scott said.

Shadow Finance Minister Mr. Eugene Cox was responsible for canvassing businesses and various other groups to explain the PLP stance, he said. "In entertaining those groups, there are expenses involved, even if only sandwiches and a glass of soda,'' Mr. Scott said.

While media advertising to date had merely advised the public of meetings, ads urging Bermudians to abstain in the referendum were a possibility.

Close to $10,000 had been spent already, but much of that had been covered by "generous'' donations when collections were taken up at campaign meetings, he said.

The next meeting in the campaign is set for 8 p.m. tonight at RAA Club in St.

George's.

While Sir John and several top Cabinet Ministers favour Independence, Government officially has no position for or against it.

Mr. Scott said an apparent drop in support for Independence reflected in a recent opinion poll commissioned by The Royal Gazette likely had more to do with confusion about the way Government has pursued the issue than about support for Independence itself.

"There are so many aspects of Independence that aren't really being aired,'' he said. The PLP was seeking to bring "rhyme and reason to the community'', he said.

It was important for people to understand why they should not go to Independence under the United Bermuda Party Government, he said.

Rather than an "accelerated rush'' to Independence, the UBP favoured a more "methodical and circumspect'' approach, he said.