(Bloomberg) - Hurricane Isabel, expected to hit North Carolina tomorrow, will likely cost insurers between $1 billion and $2 billion, less than previous estimates by analysts, according to a study by AIR Worldwide Corp.

"The projected track seems to take a route through a little corridor of low property exposure," said Peter Dailey, chief meteorologist at AIR Worldwide, which makes computer models of storm damages.

Analysts such as Wachovia Securities Inc.'s Susan Spivak predicted two days ago that Isabel would probably be the most costly natural disaster since insurers lost $20 billion from Hurricane Andrew in 1992. Yesterday, after the storm's winds had weakened and the chances of landfall in more heavily populated New Jersey or New York diminished, UBS Securities LLC's Peter Streit predicted losses of $4 billion.

Lost estimates have dropped as Isabel's track became clearer. The storm may come ashore near Ocracoke Inlet on the southern section of North Carolina's outer banks, according to the National Hurricane Center. It will likely move inland east of Raleigh, then turn north near the border with Virginia, missing the cities of Norfolk, Richmond and Washington, according to Dailey.

Nationwide Financial Services Inc., Allstate Corp. and subsidiaries of Warren Buffett's Berkshire Hathaway Inc. are among the biggest insurers of homes, autos and boats in North Carolina and Virginia, according to A.M. Best Co.