dismal visitor numbers next year.

Mr. Gary Phillips said the figures will be flat this year after a 6.1 per cent decline in 1991.

"But'', he added, "I would be very surprised if we did not see a five percent increase in arrivals in 1993, and that is being conservative.'' "Consumer confidence is coming back and people are more disposed to travel beyond the US shores,'' Mr. Phillips said. "With the appropriate marketing strategy in place, we should be able to do significantly better in 1993.

"Our immediate objective is to get the numbers up to 1990 levels, and then bring it back to where it was in 1986.'' Air arrivals peaked at 477,877 in 1987, but dropped to 386,178 in 1991 from 434,909 in 1990. Based on figures to the end of October, Mr. Phillips said he expected 1992 numbers would be the same or slightly better than those in 1991.

While predicting the figures will rise next year, Mr. Phillips cautioned that numbers are "only one component of the performance of tourism.

"We are interested not only in filling up the beds,'' he said. "One can fill up the beds with discounted sales. That is not going to help the hotels in their operations.'' While the Ministry of Tourism is not satisfied with the present state of affairs "when we look at some of our competitors who are achieving perhaps better numbers than we are, we have to ask: `At what price?' "There is a tremendous amount of discounting going on in the industry.'' Mr.

Phillips said the industry today was more price-driven than ever, and "no longer can you separate price from value.

"One of the challenges that we have is that Bermuda is expensive.'' Bermuda is in regular contact with a core group of about 6,000 travel agencies in the US, and the department emphasises the value that can be placed on Bermuda attributes such as safety, acceptance of American currency at par, and the opportunity for pre-Customs clearance.

Because of the ability they have to influence prospective visitors "the travel agent is one of our prime customers,'' Mr. Phillips said.

The department had a budget of about $28 million for the 1991-92 fiscal year, and most of that was spent to promote Bermuda as a visitor destination, he added.

A major thrust of the department at present is to increase the number of visitors during the off-season between November and March.

Beginning on January 1, five major Bermuda hotels are offering a 20 percent discount on their room rates for any days when the temperature does not reach 68 Fahrenheit. Other vacation properties and retailers will participate through other types of rewards, he said.

With the assistance of Bermuda National Trust, a calendar of events of a cultural and historical nature is being assembled for off-season visitors, he said.

While the November through March period now accounts for about 20 percent of all visitors to Bermuda, "if we can get it from the 20 percent up to 30 per cent of our business, it will certainly stop the haemorrhaging in the balance sheets of the hotels during this period of time.'' Mr. Phillips would also like to see an Island-wide effort to "over-deliver, as opposed to over-promising.'' Part of the job of Bermudians was to soften the disappointment of visitors caused by factors over which they have no control, like the weather, he explained. For example, a hotelier could soften the disappointment of a visitor's rainy stay by sending a note or a bottle of wine to the room.

Mr. Gary Phillips.