A major hurricane making landfall in Florida is overdue — and conditions are now similar to those that spawned a succession of storms in the Sunshine State in 2004 and 2005.

That was the message yesterday from the Florida Insurance Council (FIC), which said the eight named storms to hit Florida over those two years caused around $30 billion in insured losses.

Florida has not suffered a hurricane strike in three years — a span that has enabled some of Bermuda's property catastrophe reinsurers to replenish some of the capital they lost in the storm-struck years.

The FIC report also said the financial health of the state-backed reinsurance programme, the Florida Hurricane Catastrophe Fund is better than at this time last year, but there are still financial shortfalls.

"The history of hurricanes shows clearly this lucky streak cannot continue, that Florida is the most hurricane-prone state in the nation," the FIC noted in a report published yesterday.

"Since the year 1900, on average, a hurricane makes landfall in Florida every other year and, on average, a category three or stronger storm strikes Florida every four years."

The report said "steering currents" in the Atlantic, which have thus far this season helped to send storms on a curve into the ocean and away from the east coast of the US. Last week's Hurricane Bill, which brushed Bermuda on Saturday, was an example.

But the FIC adds that the steering currents have now changed and show a pattern similar to that seen in 2004 and 2005.

The report quotes Weather Underground (http://www.wunderground.com), a website created by Jeff Masters, director of meteorology at the University of Michigan.

"This year's steering pattern is about to make a major shift towards the steering pattern observed in 2004 and 2005 in the next few days," Mr. Masters wrote.

"This pattern will mean that fewer hurricanes will be recurving," he added, "and the threat to the US Gulf Coast will increase.

"There is no way of telling how long this new steering pattern might stay in place. It could last only a few days, or remain in place for several months."

The 2004 hurricane season brought Florida four major storms that caused about $20 billion in insured losses: Hurricane Charley, Hurricane Francis, Hurricane Jeanne and Hurricane Ivan.

Another four major storms struck the state in 2005. Hurricane Dennis, Hurricane Katrina, Hurricane Rita and Hurricane Wilma cost another $12 billion in losses.