What is a majority
the public have been suggesting areas of the debate we should attempt to deal with. One of these is the question of the "majority of the people'' being in favour before we move to Independence.
The problem arises in the minds of some of our readers because an election fought on the basis of Independence is one of the means of making a decision agreed to by the United Kingdom. The other means of deciding on Independence for Bermuda is, of course, a referendum. The argument is that if an election were held during which Independence was an issue, and a debate on Independence was part of the election campaign, then any decision would be unlikely to represent a majority of the voters.
It might be very unfair to Bermuda to have something of the magnitude of Independence decided by a minority. That seems to be especially true when you remember that there is no turning back from Independence and that there are problems which Bermudians would have to confront united. Independence is something you have to make the best of and which you cannot comfortably regret.
Nor would it be wise to go to Independence on the basis of a very close vote such as we have had in some general elections. A general election might just produce such a vote because it would not be solely fought on Independence.
Close votes decide on election candidates but they do not represent the majority of the people.
Then too it must be remembered that both political parties have had the chance for years to introduce Independence as an election issue. They did not do so.
The UBP did not openly favour Independence, even though some leaders did, because it knew that a majority of its voters and, indeed, a majority of the people, did not favour Independence. The PLP, which now advocates an election fought on Independence, has favoured Independence for a long time but did not dare put the issue to a vote. They did not do so because their polls also told them that a majority of the public was not in favour of Independence and introducing Independence would cause them to lose.
There is also thinking that a decision made in the process of an election might be divisive. There would, of course, be other issues in an election which would doubtless cloud the Independence issue. It could be argued after such an election, especially if the result was close, that the decision on Independence was not representative. There would be great pressure on politicians to introduce all sorts of extra things to help along their side, pro or con.
But there is another matter. Bermuda has a history of very close elections. In the wake of last October's vote the winning United Bermuda Party barely held 50 percent of those people voting. Of those registered to vote, some 77.59 percent turned up to vote, which was high, but, of course, not all Bermudians register.
The argument is that it would be difficult to get a general election majority decision of those people over the voting age of 18. But they might register and go to the polls and provide a clear result, for or against, in a referendum which is prepared and called solely on the subject of Independence.
We think a referendum is the cleanest way to go but there is, however, a danger even in that. There might be controversy and criticism of a simple yes or no referendum decision on the basis that the question was too simplistic to produce a good result.