Growing need for boxes bodes well for International Paper
Q. What are the expectations for my shares of International Paper Co.?A. The world's largest paper and packaging company thinks inside the box.As the US slowly awakens from its economic slumber, an increasing number of corrugated containerboard boxes are needed to ship equipment, software and other products.Controlling about one-third of North America's containerboard supply, the firm is gaining not only from rising volume but also from its ability to hike the prices it charges companies for all those boxes.After cutting its dividend in 2009 in response to the economic downturn, the company hiked it in 2010 and once again early this year. Dividend yield is now more than three percent.The universal need for boxes for shipping assures it of solid gains in fast-growing emerging markets. In March it agreed to acquire a stake of up to 75 percent of Indian paper manufacturer Andhra Pradesh Paper Mills Ltd. Last year it purchased the SCA packaging business, which is primarily in China, and it also has operations in Brazil and Russia.Given all this potential, research analysts such as those at Deutsche Bank have lately boosted their price targets for its shares.International Paper Co (IP) shares are up 18 percent this year following gains of two percent last year and 127 percent in 2009. The company had a profit of $342 million in its first quarter compared to a loss of $162 million in the year-earlier quarter that included restructuring costs.International Paper has focused primarily on paper and packaging since 2005 and purchased Weyerhauser's containerboard assets in 2008. It has exited several non-core businesses and aggressively cut costs.On the negative side, the overall paper industry is in decline in North America and Europe. In addition, it is difficult to differentiate such basic products from those of competitors, with many customers buying on price.While International Paper reduced its debt and pension liabilities last year, Zacks Equity Research has noted: “Its high debt levels and underfunded pension liability remain concerns as they curb the company's ability to ramp up its capital expenditure.”Consensus analyst recommendation on International Paper is “buy,” according to Thomson Reuters, consisting of six “strong buys,” five “buys,” two “holds” and two “underperforms.”Earnings are expected to increase 32 percent this year compared to 147 forecast for the paper and paper products industry, according to Thomson Reuters. The five-year annualized return is estimated to be 3 percent versus 13 percent for its peers.Q. Does a global bond fund make sense for my fixed-income investing? What about Templeton Global Bond Fund?A. It is a different breed of cat that sometimes scratches its investors.The volatile $54.3 billion Templeton Global Bond Fund A (TPINX) bets on currencies and emerging markets. It also shorts some bonds in hopes of gaining from their decline in value. Therefore, it should not be your only bond fund but a complement to more predictable choices.Longer-term results have been strong: Its three-year, five-year and 10-year annualised returns of 12 percent rank at the top of the global bond fund category. Its 12-month return of nine percent, ranking in the lower one-third of its peers, is less impressive due to some inopportune shorting.“Don't put all your fixed-income money in this fund,” cautioned Miriam Sjoblom, mutual fund analyst with Morningstar Inc in Chicago, who considers its portfolio offbeat. “It is for an investor who wants diversification away from the traditional US intermediate core bond fund.”It buys government debt by analysing economic situations in different countries, available yields and the likely path of currencies, Sjoblom explained.Michael Hasenstab, who also co-heads Franklin Templeton's international bond group, co-managed the fund beginning in 2001 and became sole manager in 2006. He has more than $1 million of his own money invested. Working with him is a team of 10 global and emerging-markets portfolio managers as well as managers in local markets.The fund invests for the long term, yet is flexible in making moves when it sees immediate possibilities. It is not tied to any benchmark.Among Templeton Global Bond Fund's portfolio of 160 bonds, about 43 percent are rated A in quality, 23 percent AAA and 21 percent BBB. Average bond maturity is about four years. It owns primarily foreign government bonds, along with some foreign and US corporate debt and US municipals. Countries of its top holdings include Australia, Poland, New South Whales, Russia, Brazil and Mexico.This 4.25 percent “load” (sales charge) fund requires a $1,000 minimum initial investment and has an annual expense ratio of 0.91 percent.