Log In

Reset Password

Walton's right — and dead wrong

On Thursday, September 20, 2012, Walton Brown wrote that “our residential population has increased, not decreased, over a ten year period, based on the only accurate count of Bermuda's population — the census.”Sadly, Walton Brown is right. But also, and even more sadly, he is wrong. Dead wrong. Absolutely wrong.Walton wrote: “Between 2000 and 2010 the total population increased from 62,059 to 64,237, or four percent, the residential workforce population increased during this same period from 29,970 to 30,729; and the total workforce grew from 36,878 to 37,197. These facts alone undermine their argument.”Walton takes his measurement from only one source. Over a ten-year period he takes only two measurements. He takes the first measurement in Census 2000. The second in Census 2010.I believe that Bermuda's residential population peaked in 2008, began falling in 2009, and has been falling since 2009. I believe this — and I publicly and loudly make this statement — because between 2000 and 2011, I have taken eleven measurements.De-rhetoricised and put into numbers, compare our two statements. I use National Workforce numbers to show and explain the difference. Walton uses the term residential workforce, but these minor terminology differences are not critical to the fundamental argument.The numbers that I quote are the numbers set out in the annual Employment Briefs. These are prepared, annually, by the Department of Statistics. These numbers are consistent and track back to 1980.The Year What Walton says What I say2000 36,878 38,0172001 37,5972002 37,7682003 37,6862004 38,3632005 38,9472006 39,6862007 39,8512008 40,2132009 39,5202010 37,197 38,0972011 37,399So Walton is right. Measure once in 2000. Measure again in 2010. Absolutely, you will see growth. That is a numeric fact and even my numbers for the year 2000 and 2010 support Walton. There was an increase.However, if you look at the flow of data that I have set out for you, it's obvious and clear that there was an INCREASE between 2000 and 2008. There was a peak of 40,213 in 2008. Then, in the next two years, there was a decrease from the 40,213 of 2008 to the reported count of 38,097 in 2010. Then, in 2011, another decrease to 37,399.Do it yourself. Join any two points. You get the absolutely predictable Euclidean straight line that the old Greek knew. But join any eleven points that emanate from the orderly chaos of any economy that's based on randomly changing but generally predictable human activity and you will get a trend line that will go both up and down — maybe even sideways!Join my 11 dots. You get an UP (2000 to 2008) and a DOWN (2009 to 2010).If a multibillion dollar national economy is to be properly managed, the senior managers must use the best available information and ought to ensure that their information is sound and reliable. Good national management cannot rely on taking critical economic measurements only once in every ten years. No one can!Mr Walton Brown's two-point straight line measurement is correct. The conclusion that he has drawn, and that is based on his two point measurement, is entirely correct for his two-point argument. Mr Brown is not wrong on his two-point conclusion. I have no desire or intent to denigrate a man who holds a Master's degree and who has been a college professor.Using similar official data, I have taken eleven measurements over 11 years. The outcome of my 11 measurements over 11 years is that Bermuda's residential and workforce population went UP and Bermuda's residential and workforce population is now going DOWN. I've stated that. I've written that. I stand by that. The accompanying chart shows that.Finally, and a reminder, in any country where the residential or workforce population is falling substantially, that economy will decline. The decline is inevitable. The decline is independent of politics, race, geography, ideology — and even passionate rhetoric or well-written theses.Isn't it since 2008, that residential accommodation has emptied out, leaving hundreds of newly emptied residential units; food sales have declined in overall volume; imports have fallen in overall volume; payroll tax receipts have declined? All of these — and more — are indicators confirming a declining residential population.Re-statement:- Larry Burchall states that Bermuda's residential population is in decline and that this decline is directly responsible, in part, for Bermuda's overall economic decline.