Term limits aren’t working
Last week’s economic forums hosted by Sir John Swan and Larry Burchall saw the vexed question of term limits raised again, and some debate on the degree to which changing the policy might help the economy.First, it is worth noting, again, that term limits were not put in place to protect Bermudian jobs.Term limits were designed to solve a very specific problem — that of non-Bermudians who had been resident on the Island for lengthy periods of time (say 20 years) and had some moral right to more permanent residency, jobs, property and the vote. According to Sir John, the United Kingdom had also indicated to Bermuda that if the Island ever went Independent, it would be obliged to give these long term residents full rights of citizenship.Sir John went on to posit that the majority of these people were white and unlikely to vote for the Progressive Labour Party, which therefore had no desire to create a class of potential new voters who would be inclined to vote them out of power. Whether that’s correct or not, the Government was faced with a growing problem and the need to balance the rights of long term residents against the fear of displacement among Bermudians.So the term limits policy was put in place. People who had been here for a fixed amount of time before a certain date would be entitled to a permanent residents’ certificate, which would give them certain limited rights. At the same time, to ensure the situation never arose again, people who did not qualify for PRCs would be told that they would be able to remain on the Island for only six years and would then have to leave. Anyone coming to the Island would know this on arrival.There was a certain amount of opposition to this; what about the chief executive officer or specialist whose presence in Bermuda was crucial to a business’ success? And so extensions and waivers were made possible for “key employees”. And that’s where the policy now stands. What is clear now is that the policy has outlived its usefulness.Waivers have been used reasonably widely, but in a somewhat arbitrary manner. Defenders of the policy claim the application of the waivers proves its flexibility. Opponents argue that they demonstrate the failure of the overall policy. If so many exceptions are made, what’s the point in having it?What is indisputable is that it has become a disincentive to companies putting jobs in Bermuda, and it has become a deterrent for people coming to Bermuda. Some may say there is nothing wrong with that, since the whole point was to deter people from becoming long term residents.But what is not recognised is that at a time when jobs can move from one continent to another with ease, there is nothing to stop the employee from setting up anywhere, and as a result, whole departments and businesses can vanish from Bermuda as well, putting Bermudians out of work and tearing great holes in the economic fabric on which everyone depends.Bermuda’s businesses are predominantly service businesses, and most international companies’ biggest asset is not their physical location but their human capital. So if is easier to have a staff member in Hoboken, Halifax or Hyderabad, then that’s where they will be.Bermuda’s obligation is to nurture its own human capital and to attract the best brains to the Island. They in turn create jobs and employee people who keep the rest of the economy turning over. Would abolishing term limits reverse the trend of jobs leaving Bermuda? No. But it would send a signal that the Bermuda economy wants to keep people with skills who are interested in enabling the economy to grow here in Bermuda.Encouraging people to remain in Bermuda is not just desirable. It is essential. Why? Because the population of working age Bermudians is shrinking, and shrinking fast. There are currently 20,437 Bermudians aged between 40 and 69 who have either just left the workforce or will do so over the next 25 or so years. Among those aged ten to 40, the next 30-year age group, there are 16,826, a difference of around 3,600. Some of that difference will be made of non-Bermudian spouses and people who gain status on reaching adulthood.But the bulk of the gap will have to be made up of non-Bermudians simply to keep the workforce stable. And that begs the question of why Bermuda, with a shrinking Bermudian population, is deterring people who have something to contribute to the Island, from remaining here.