is not yet over. Economists and money managers may mark the technical end of the recession in a way that serves them but does not mean the public is free of recessionary effects.

If one thing emerged clearly from the election it was that Government had prepared Bermuda well to withstand the recession and that, compared to many other countries, Bermuda did well in the recession. There are political points to be gained by pretending that Bermuda did not do well, but the truth is that Bermuda did do well and that it is improbable that it could have done much better.

As this newspaper has pointed out in the past, economies in which tourism plays a large part are usually the last to recover from a recession. The economy is still not good in the northeastern United States, Bermuda's major catchment area, where the recovery seems to be stalled. In hard times people look after their basic needs first and consider expensive vacations in a place like Bermuda a luxury. When things are not so good they may take their vacation but they take a hard look at the cost. They may even come to Bermuda but they are careful what they spend.

The tough times have also taught people to look for value and to question prices. The "spend and who cares'' attitude of the 1980s is over. People are looking for bargains and they are looking for value.

Sometimes there are unfair myths about the fortunes generated by Front Street stores. The Bermudians making money today are in the professional service area and highly successful retail is a memory. Right now there is hardly a retail store in Bermuda making any kind of money.

Bermuda's retail sales statistics do not indicate that the recession is over.

It would seem that good summer tourism did not mean spending. August retail sales figures were below the previous year considering inflation.

These days visitors have seen luxury goods almost permanently available at "sale'' prices at home in the United States and Bermuda's prices are high because Bermuda supports itself with import duties. This causes a double problem. It makes goods high for visitors and sends Bermudians abroad to shop.

Overseas shopping figures continue to increase despite the recession and despite the fact that when trip costs are factored into overseas prices there is little saving.

Economically, things are certainly better in Bermuda because of better tourism but they are not yet good. We think that Bermudians have to know that because the winter is upon us along with the traditional slow season. With most hotels staying open, there should be some easing of past problems but we do not think the winter will be easy for Bermudians.

We think that there could be business failures over the winter months simply because the recession has dragged on for so long and that general employment opportunities are just not going to be there. Businesses have had a long and hard time and some will struggle to get through the off-season. We can only hope that this winter will be the end of the recession but we do not think the recession has yet gone away.