Premier and Finance Minister Paula Cox caused a collective raising of eyebrows at a conference last week when she announced that the economic recovery had begun.Given Bermuda’s current economic malaise, most people at the conference and in the general community no doubt wondered if she was talking about Bermuda. But before dismissing the claim out of hand, it is important to note two things.The first is that as Finance Minister, Ms Cox has access to data and information that most people don’t have. That information may not be ready for publication, which may explain why Ms Cox did not present any evidence to back up her claims, apart from the news that formations of special purpose insurance vehicles had risen.The second is that recovery can be hard to discern when it begins, especially if it is starting from a low base, and secondly because it can be uneven and may not have translated into jobs creation. In the US, the economy has been growing since the middle of 2009. But jobs growth has been so anaemic that for many people, the recession has not ended.Bermuda’s Ministry of Finance says GDP has been contracting since 2009 and expected it continue to shrink in 2012 by between 1.5 percent and 2.5 percent. It is not impossible that there could be economic growth this year, but at this stage it seems unlikely and most signs point to a continued slowdown. In the first quarter of the year, new international company registrations edged up, but the total number of companies registered in Bermuda declined by 2.1 percent, the 11th consecutive quarterly decline.On the other hand, the value of retail sales has risen in four of the last five months after years of decline. But the sales improvement seems to have been mainly inflation driven, since the volume of sales (with inflation taken out) has slipped for three consecutive months after rising slightly in February and March. Even the increase in value has been mainly concentrated in food and liquor stores, where price increases have contributed, while a recovery in building supplies has tapered off.Bermuda’s balance of payments, which measures how much money Bermuda takes in for goods and services and how much it sends out, continues to produce relatively large surpluses, but this seems to be because the value of imports is shrinking faster than the value of sales, confirming the economic contraction.Employment income basically, Bermuda’s collective salary also dropped in the first quarter by 4.1 percent, and employment income international business dropped by ten percent and fell for the third consecutive quarter. Essentially, that means people have less money to spend.This survey of some of the available economic information suggests the economic recovery has not begun. It may be that second quarter figures show an improvement, although the anecdotal evidence suggests otherwise with weak retail sales and tourism figures. Certainly, economic confidence has worsened this year, according to Royal Gazette polling. While confidence may lag behind recovery it takes a while for people to believe the economy is recovering even when it is it also means people are reluctant to spend until they really believe things are getting better.It may be that Ms Cox as trying to engender confidence and optimism with her declaration. If so, that’s a risky gambit. US President Herbert Hoover is best remembered for declaring that “prosperity is just around the corner” as the Great Depression hit its nadir in 1932. He was wrong and paid for it at the polls that year, a worrying sign for Ms Cox.