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Increase in number of hurricanes predicted

Potential threat: Hurricane Katia is seen crossing the Atlantic ocean in this file picture from 2011. Forecasters have raised slightly their prediction for the number of hurricanes and named storms they expect to form this year.

Forecasters have upped their prediction for the number of hurricanes this year, but still expect slower activity than recent seasons.Online weather firm AccuWeather.com predicts 12 named storms, including five hurricanes, while the Weather Channel’s WSI expects 11 named storms, including six hurricanes.The anticipated figure has gone up from last month, when Colorado State University’s weather team said there would be four hurricanes for the year, with ten named storms.However, all predictions remain well below the previous two years, each of which saw 19 named storms, with seven hurricanes last year and 12 the year before. The yearly average is six hurricanes and 12 named storms.Experts say Atlantic sea surface temperatures are lower than in recent years, while an ‘El Nino’ event could emerge over the summer to further cool the ocean.WSI chief meteorologist Todd Crawford told the South Florida Sun Sentinel: “There is still uncertainty regarding the development of El Nino.“If the chances of El Nino development increase, our forecast numbers will likely go down even further in future updates.”Paul Pastelok, AccuWeather’s lead long-range forecaster, said storms might rise in the western Atlantic and the Gulf of Mexico and warned a big storm is possible for the East Coast.The last hurricane to hit Bermuda was Igor in 2010, although that lost strength shortly before reaching the Island, causing relatively minimal damage other than flooding in Somerset and St George’s.Hurricane season runs from June to the end of November.