Log In

Reset Password
BERMUDA | RSS PODCAST

Invest wisely during market highs

Investing wisely: what to do when the US markets are at an all-time high.

Absolute investment euphoria abounds. The Dow (Dow Jones Industrial Average Index) hits an all-time high this week as of late Thursday evening with the S&P 500 Index also hovering close to a record, according to Bloomberg reports.There is nothing more boring than a flat, inactive investment market. It is a given that market volatility, whether trending up or down, always generates more financial news discussions, more interviews with knowledgeable investment gurus, more focus on the number one question: how long can this upward equity capital market rally in the US last?The answer depends upon who you listen to, and how firm the conviction (supported by their analyses) these experts have in their predictions of the future trajectory of the Dow, for instance.Every bull market opportunist hopes (and expects) the market to continue to climb higher.Naysayers (the doom and gloomsters) are bear market predictors — meaning they expect a downturn in investment market values.There is always the unknown factor as well — how the market will react and then reflect its own trends based upon millions of trade patterns, research, reality, emotion, and firm economic news.In spite of these signs, until very recently, small investors have been so wary of “being taken to the cleaners” again that their behaviour has confounded experts and frustrated financial advisers.Small investors have continued to keep their savings and investments safe, sitting in nonproductive cash, US Treasuries or other boring debt generating low returns, with probably only small dabbles into other securities, such as preferred shares that pay dividends, and money market funds.What should your choice be in this all-time market high investment environment? Will you be diving into this market, feeling that somehow, you have missed out on this rally, or will you be cashing out of existing positions? Could we be seeing another “buy at the high” and sell at the low for the small investor?I hope not, but it is certainly an understandable reaction to seeing significant upturns — indeed historic gains — in US capital markets.While no human investment guru or mechanical indicator can perfectly every predict market high or collapse, there are many, possibly hundreds or more, indicators that can be used an investment tools to assist in understanding the risk levels, directions, and patterns of US markets.Introducing the Greedometer, a fascinating indicator that has caught the attention of thousands of global investors, and financial market media such as CNBC, Wall Street Journal, MarketWatch, Canadian Globe and Mail, and Kiplinger among them.The Greedometer is a strategic investments conditions indicator designed to identify secular extremes, ie, long-term US stock market peaks and troughs.Designed and developed by Jeff Seymour, certified financial planner, engineer and managing director of Triangle Wealth, the Greedometer is a fascinating proprietary math calculator (a very sophisticated algorithm model) that provides an indicator, a quantifiable warning of an impending market deterioration by ramping up the meter gauge as the factor determinants of the Greedometer model changes.The Greedometer is based upon nine factors involving US stock market indicators / indexes: the Vix (Volatility Index), ECRI WLI (Weekly Leading Index of the Economic Cycle Research Institute), adjusted price/earnings, the S&P 500 Profit Margin, the Greedometer put/call, the buy sell climax, advisor sentiment, NYSE margin debt and rats jumping ship (the ratio of corporate insider shares sold and bought).Mr Seymour called the ninth factor parameter, rats jumping ship because “he observed an extraordinarily high ratio of corporate insiders dumping their shares across the realm of publicly traded companies just a few months prior to previous collapses.” The gauge is interactive.And, right now it is flashing red!On his website, Mr Seymour announces the publication of his second book to be released in April 2013, called Greedometer 2.0 The Rats are Jumping Ship.These books have been written to provide timely information to individual investors, including:— summarising relevant US and global economic data, and connect that data to an economic forecast for the next several years— providing insight into the functioning of the Greedometer® algorithms and what they suggest is in front of us— providing insight into some of the ways investors are given a bad deal by the investment industryThe underlying premise is history repeats itself.According to the book, since 1880, the US stock market has gone through alternating long-term periods (I call them genercycles) of moderation followed by a boom-bust period. Each of these long-term periods lasts approximately 35 years and is the foundation upon which shorter term business cycles are added. Unfortunately, 2013 finds us in the bust portion of a period that will likely range from year 2000 through 2020.Warren Buffett famously said, “Be fearful when others are greedy, and greedy when others are fearful.”In the end, the decision to invest or not, after doing your homework, is up to you and you alone. Invest wisely.Disclosure: I have no connection to Mr Seymour, with the exception that he may provide me with a free Greedometer newsletter for mentioning his website, www.triwealth.com/greedometer-2/Martha Harris Myron JP CPA PFS CFP TEP is a Bermudian, and a cross border financial planning specialist / journalist. Her articles are published domestically and internationally and focus on the challenging financial environment for local and international residents and their families living and working in Bermuda, the premier international financial centre in the North Atlantic Quadrangle: Bermuda, United States / Canada, United Kingdom and Europe. Inquiries to martha.myron@gmail.com