Letters to the Editor, 19 July 2010
Analysing the trends
July 2, 2010
Dear Sir,
I have noted with concern the recent increase in disparagement of the extent to which the Bermudian population prepares itself for participation in the local economy. This attitude among business leaders, politicians as well as the media has been a recurrent theme over the past several decades. I recall it occurring every decade starting from the 1960s at least, all the while ignoring the impact of the actual availability of manpower in Bermuda.
I prefer examining basic data rather than reacting to the apparent surface issues. For this reason I requested raw data from the Department of Statistics related to the censuses of 1991 and 2000. This data would be reasonably objective and reliable.
I have included a table analysing this data for two age groups; G1 (16-29) immediately following compulsory schooling and G2 (45-64) immediately before the accepted retirement age the age groups at the extremes of the working-age population. The analysis considers the percentage of each age group in terms of the highest level of education achieved, occupation in which employed and industry in which involved.
The table shows clearly that, over the decade of the 1990s, the percentage of each age group with university qualifications has increased, the percentage of G2 with technical qualifications has increased as well but the percentage of G1 with technical qualifications has decreased. In terms of occupation, the percentage of each age group working as professionals has increased while the percentage of each age group working as administrators has decreased. In terms of industry, there is very little difference in the percentage of each age group working in construction, a decrease in the percentage of each age group working in the hotel industry and an increase in the percentage of each age group working in international business. In addition it should be noted that, over the decade of the 1990s, the absolute size of the G1 age group decreased by 9.5 percent whereas the absolute size of the G2 age group increased by 28.5 percent.
It would be useful to examine the 2010 census data, when it is available, to see what changes have occurred over this most recent decade. In my opinion the data for the decade of the 1990s shows a population that is responding well in terms of factors that are under the direct control of the individual with the exception of interest in technical qualifications for G1, the younger age group. It is obvious that, aside from professionals who may be self-employed, other individuals depend on decisions made by employers regardless of the level of their education. Hence the dissatisfaction expressed by business leaders, politicians as well as the media may be due more to a paucity of manpower than a lack of striving in the local population. The area of technical qualifications/occupations can be addressed by a deliberate government strategy that includes an attempt to improve the perceived status of technical qualifications/occupations.
Of more long term importance is the comment in the report "Bermuda Population Projection 2000-2030" that suggests that, if current trends continue, the total Bermudian population will start to decrease after 2030 and of course will have a higher average age. Both of these factors will lead to a decrease in the net working-age population. This in turn will make it even more difficult to service the manpower needs of industry.
Politicians and policymakers must develop a strategy to deal with this eventuality.
J.T. CHRISTOPHER
Warwick
| TOTAL | 16-29 | 45-64 | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Census 2000 | Bda | Nonbda | Bda | Nonbda | Bda | Nonbda |
| Highest Qualification | ||||||
| No certification | 25.3 | 12.5 | 13.8 | 8.7 | 36.0 | 17.6 |
| Technical/vocational | 16.6 | 19.6 | 11.1 | 20.2 | 17.9 | 18.6 |
| Bachelor | 12.0 | 30.2 | 13.5 | 37.9 | 8.3 | 21.7 |
| Occupation | ||||||
| Professional/technical | 17.1 | 33.7 | 16.9 | 38.1 | 15.6 | 28.6 |
| Administrative/management | 10.2 | 13.7 | 3.3 | 6.2 | 13.3 | |
| Production/transport | 24.2 | 10.3 | 24.8 | 9.5 | 24.0 | 11.5 |
| Industry | ||||||
| Construction | 11.8 | 5.2 | 13.3 | 4.9 | 10.6 | 5.9 |
| Hotel | 6.7 | 9.9 | 6.5 | 9.5 | 7.5 | 9.7 |
| International company | 8.5 | 15.4 | 7.2 | 13.6 | 4.7 | 13.3 |
| Census 1991 | ||||||
| Highest Qualification | ||||||
| No certification | 35.4 | 18.2 | 15.6 | 14.6 | 54.6 | 23.9 |
| Technical/vocational | 13.5 | 19.1 | 14.4 | 23.0 | 10.8 | 16.8 |
| Bachelor | 8.3 | 20.2 | 10.8 | 18.6 | 5.0 | 16.1 |
| Occupation | ||||||
| Professional/technical | 13.2 | 27.0 | 12.2 | 23.9 | 11.9 | 27.6 |
| Administrative/management | 13.3 | 14.0 | 7.8 | 5.5 | 16.2 | 22.6 |
| Production/transport | 24.2 | 11.0 | 25.5 | 10.7 | 25.4 | 11.7 |
| Industry | ||||||
| Construction | 11.9 | 5.1 | 14.0 | 4.5 | 11.0 | 6.2 |
| Hotel | 9.2 | 15.0 | 9.5 | 19.3 | 9.7 | 11.6 |
| International company | 4.8 | 9.2 | 5.4 | 6.5 | 2.5 | 10.4 |
| Population distribution | |||
| Total | 16-29 | 45-64 | |
| 2000 TOTAL | 36878 | 7511 | 12152 |
| BERMUDIAN | 28203 | 5882 | 10060 |
| PERCENTAGE BERMUDIAN | 76.5 | 78.3 | 82.8 |
| 1991 TOTAL | 33120 | 8860 | 9209 |
| BERMUDIAN | 25388 | 6496 | 7829 |
| PERCENTAGE BERMUDIAN | 76.7 | 73.3 | 85 |
The table above displays the percentage of each age group that were recorded in the census as having a specific characteristic in terms of qualification, occupation and industry in which employed respectively. Bermuda Population Projection 2000-2030, Department of Statistics Report: "The annual growth rate in population for Bermuda will be less than one tenth of a percent by the year 2015 and negative growth is projected by the year 2030. In 1950, the crude birth rate was 30.4 per 1,000 people and by 2000 the crude birth rate had plummeted to 13.5."
