Opinion is divided as to when the recession will really start to bite in Bermuda. Some effects are already being felt. Construction projects have been shelved or scaled back, resulting in falling employment in that sector. Most of these early job losses will have been of guest workers, but their departure will be cutting into Government's payroll tax receipts.

The financial sector has also suffered a number of job losses, not all of which have yet been made public. Some might never be, given that many of Bermuda's financial companies are privately owned and need not report their activities. Some of the public companies have not exactly rushed forward to report their job cutbacks, either. A number of foreign workers are not renewing their contracts and others are being sent away under the work permit time limits rules. Worse is yet to come in this area.

This makes fewer dollars available for retailers and landlords, and the other places people spend their money. It all makes for a smaller economy in terms of dollars and jobs.

My question is when the wider economy will begin to be affected, and my guess is not until after Christmas. As anecdotal evidence, I offer the evidence of my own eyes at the Reefs brunch last Sunday. It was the first time I have been to the hotel since the dining room was extended. I would guess that it now seats 250 people, and that last Sunday a good two-thirds of those seats were filled.

The Reefs is not typical: it provides consistently excellent food at a reasonable price in a superb environment. Last Sunday, to judge by the restaurant, you wouldn't have known there was a crisis of any sort. For those Bermuda organisations that provide a high quality experience, the recession is probably less scary.

That said, the first half of next year doesn't look good for anyone except most of the mid-sized Bermuda insurance and reinsurance companies, who are doing business in a fairly hard market. For the rest of us, a fairly hard time is in prospect.

* * *

As well as being a finance column, this space now appears to be your "fake eco-nonsense" corner. Hard on the heels of the French law banning grocery bags comes an English law banning regular light bulbs from, I believe, 2010. Only the ghastly wiggly ones will be allowed ... oh, and the halogen ones that cost five times as much as regular bulbs and last half as long.

No sooner had I decided to write about this subject than a letter appeared in my inbox saying, inter alia: "... which brings me to the 'green' light bulb. You know, the coiled thing that contains mercury and is supposed to last longer and use less electricity. I bought a pack. My experience has been that they burn out faster than incandescent bulbs." So there we are. More 'green' hokum exposed for what it is.

* * *

Speaking of which, am I the only one to notice that, not long after smoking was banned in Bermuda buildings, the economy started going to hell? Cause and effect, my friends. Push the smokers into the street and you leave the economy in the hands of non-smokers, who are obviously not risk takers. Result? A general economic collapse.

I say: allow smoking in buildings such as supermarkets, hospitals and offices once again, and I guarantee you the economy would be back on the up and up within two years.

* * *

Looking for the silver lining in current economic circumstances, I came up with one, finally. My shares have lost half their value. Soon, when they've lost the other half of their value, I'll have nothing left to lose - for which, as you may recall, freedom is another word.

* * *

You might have seen that the Pope has recently weighed in on tax havens. It seems he's against organisations that have accumulated enormous amounts of money for their own purposes and not distributed it to the needy. Erm ...

It's not my place to get in the middle of a discussion on "religon", which is how the majority of a class at a Bermuda private school spelled the word "religion" in a test not too long ago. I do, however, have a couple of funny Papal stories.

A friend's child was watching TV back in 2005, when Cardinal Ratzinger was elevated to Pope. The child rushed excitedly into the kitchen, shouting "Mum! Mum! The new Pope's a rap singer!" I am tempted to offer a sarcastic rap, but shall refrain, it being Christmas and all that.

My favourite Papal story, however, predates the current incumbent. It took place in the 1950s, I believe, which makes the Pontiff in question the 262nd, John XXIII. After his election, the world awaited his first appearance in his new capacity. The BBC reporter assigned to cover the event was awestruck by the weight of the occasion. When John emerged, the reporter stammered: "Yes, I can see him now ... and here he comes, his Popiness the Hole".