A scientific survey sponsored by Bermuda-based insurer Catlin has provided evidence suggesting that the Arctic Ocean may become largely ice-free during the summer within a decade.

The Catlin Arctic Survey, completed earlier this year, provides the latest record of Arctic ice thickness. It was the only survey capturing surface measurements of the Arctic sea ice during winter and spring 2009.

The data, collected by manual drilling and observations on a 450-kilometre route across the northern part of the Beaufort Sea, suggests the survey area is comprised almost exclusively of first-year ice.

This is a significant finding because the region has traditionally contained older, thicker multiyear ice. The average thickness of the ice floes measured by the Catlin Arctic Survey ice team was 1.8 metres, a depth considered too thin to survive the summer's ice melt. These findings have been analysed by the Polar Ocean Physics Group at the University of Cambridge, led by Professor Peter Wadhams, one of the world's leading experts on sea ice cover in the North Pole region.

"With a larger part of the region now first-year ice, it is clearly more vulnerable," said Professor Wadhams. "The area is now more likely to become open water each summer, bringing forward the potential date when the summer sea ice will be completely gone."

"The Catlin Arctic Survey data supports the new consensus view — based on seasonal variation of ice extent and thickness, changes in temperatures, winds and especially ice composition — that the Arctic will be ice-free in summer within about 20 years, and that much of the decrease will occur within 10 years.

"That means you'll be able to treat the Arctic as if it were essentially an open sea in the summer and have transport across the Arctic Ocean," Professor Wadhams said.

At the unveiling of the results in London, Dr. Martin Sommerkorn of the WWF International Arctic Programme, which partnered with the Catlin Arctic Survey, said: "The Arctic sea ice holds a central position in our Earth's climate system. Take it out of the equation and we are left with a dramatically warmer world. Such a loss of Arctic sea ice cover has recently been assessed to set in motion powerful climate feedbacks which will have an impact far beyond the Arctic itself — self-perpetuating cycles, amplifying and accelerating the consequences of global warming.

"This could lead to flooding affecting one-quarter of the world's population, substantial increases in greenhouse gas emissions from massive carbon pools and extreme global weather changes," Dr. Sommerkorn said.

"Today's findings provide yet another urgent call for action to world leaders ahead of the UN climate summit in Copenhagen this December to rapidly and effectively curb global greenhouse gas emissions, with rich countries committing to reduce emissions by 40 percent by 2020," Dr. Sommerkorn said.

Stephen Catlin, chief executive officer of Catlin Group Ltd., said: "The measurements of the Arctic sea ice taken by the Catlin Arctic Survey team have now been verified and interpreted by researchers at the University of Cambridge. Their conclusions are important, and we hope that these findings will help stimulate debate at the UN climate summit in Copenhagen."