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The first major test

when Finance Minister Eugene Cox brings his first Budget to the House of Assembly.

This will be the most important legislation to date that the Progressive Labour Party Government has steered through Parliament and the first major test of credibility for a party whose financial acumen has been questioned by opponents in the past.

The Budget will pass -- easily. With a 26-14 majority in the House of Assembly, passage is certain and the Senate, where the PLP does not have a majority, cannot reject money bills.

Government's bigger challenge is to win the public relations war and here it has to fight on two fronts.

The Budget needs to maintain business confidence by controlling public spending, keeping taxes down and finding ways to encourage economic growth.

The PLP also has to satisfy the expectations of the voters who gave the party its mandate last November. That means spending more money in a number of areas, including housing and pensions, while reducing taxes in a range of areas from tourism to personal savings to small businesses.

Neither challenge will be easy.

The Opposition is restricted -- in this Budget -- by time. It has had a little over three months to pull together the Budget -- a process which usually takes at least half the year. Thus much of the groundwork for the Budget will actually have been laid by the United Bermuda Party.

The second restriction is a result of the PLP's own election platform which ruled out income tax and promised a comprehensive review of the tax system.

That means it would be unwise to start overhauling the existing system without completing the review first.

The PLP also said it did not see the need to raise taxes -- money would instead be found by rooting out inefficiency and eliminating waste.

It is our understanding that in this Budget, Government does not intend to alter the basic methods of revenue collecting, meaning Customs duties will remain roughly the same and any tax increases will come in those fees which are governed by inflation.

It should also be noted that there has been growing criticism by Government Ministers of the public debt built up by the previous Government and how this is restricting Government from fulfilling its plans.

Environment Minister Arthur Hodgson said in the House of Assembly that the $170 million debt had placed a "stranglehold'' on PLP spending plans, although he promised the PLP would still fulfil its campaign pledges.

If Government is concerned about the debt's size, it will be interesting to see if there are plans in the Budget to accelerate its reduction.

Although this was not promised in the Election, the major changes in spending by the Government seem to have come at the top of the Civil Service.

Government has appointed a chief of staff for the Cabinet Office and the Premier also has an aide.

Yesterday, this newspaper reported that Government is considering appointing a Permanent Secretary for Transport, which will result in a further spending increase.

While the sums being spent on these posts are small in relation to the overall Budget, the appointments could be seen as a sign of things to come. Because liberal parties run the risk of being labelled as "tax and spenders'', Government must take care not to live up to that reputation.