to the present takes some pizazz. For analysts it's not simply a historical exercise. Invariably they're really attempting a prognosis on what to do the next time similar events happen to drive stocks up in the same manner.

Martin Fridson, a managing director at Merrill Lynch & Co., decided to give it a go and ended up writing It Was A Very Good Year, a book that tries to track the reasons behind the ten times stocks have returned over 35 percent in a single year since 1900.

It doesn't look like this year will meet the mark, for those still hopeful about the volatile markets of late.

"No matter how well the market does in the next ten weeks it's highly unlikely to finish up 35 percent,'' he said at the annual awards dinner of the Bermuda Society of Financial Analysts.

The very good years of the 1900s so far have been 1908, 1915, 1927, 1928, 1933, 1935, 1954, 1958, 1975, and 1995.

The candidate theories usually put forward for explanations of good years are anticipation of corporate profit rebound, a psychology shift in the market, the cyclical, the rebound, and the easing of credit conditions theories.

On the whole, Mr. Fridson found the only consistent theme in years of maximum return is these occurred when credit conditions have been eased, as in the two recent rate cuts by the Federal Reserve this year.

He believes the cuts indicate the Federal Reserve has shifted to worrying more about a possible meltdown in the financial market over the Asian economic crisis than being concerned about inflation.

It also helps if the market begins the year at a severely depressed level.

Except for 1927 and 1928, eight of the very good years started with a market at the bottom.

Unfortunately severe selloffs don't invariably give way to huge rallies. The Dow industrials declined by 15 percent or more in 13 separate years that did not precede one of the century's ten best years.

He believes that the most likely formula for the next 35 percent stock market year will be a combination of the two factors, a depressed stock market and a sudden easing of credit.

For readers of tea leaves the scenario runs like this. Stocks prices begin the year at a depressed level, reflecting fears that central bankers will inflict more pain to curtail inflation.

Suddenly, a financial crisis reduces the inflation consideration to a secondary concern. The Federal Reserve relaxes credit, leading to the stock market adjusting quickly to the changed circumstances.

"In their eagerness to prevent a meltdown, the monetary authorities unavoidably give stock investors a windfall,'' he said.

While one part of the scenario is currently true -- the sudden easing of rates -- the other is not. Stock valuations remain quite high.

"The heartening news is that while the intervals between very good years are irregular, the preconditions display considerable uniformity,'' he concludes.

"Perhaps, after all, investors can genuinely profit from experience.''