by-election in that constituency in the next few months.

The by-election will be an interesting test for both political parties, but there is likely to be far more pressure on the United Bermuda Party than on the governing Progressive Labour Party.

The UBP must retain this seat if it is to be a credible Opposition after its General Election drubbing, but victory will not be as easy as some people believe.

The UBP also needs to improve its performance in the House of Assembly, and to that extent it needs a candidate who is prepared to speak up and take on the Government. Many of the UBP's current MPs are inexperienced and seem not to have found their feet while the Government's MPs, new and old, are mostly confident and comfortable in the House.

The United Bermuda Party also suffers from a severe racial imbalance in the House after many of its black MPs lost their previously marginal seats in the Election. Meanwhile, many of the UBP candidates in UBP's traditional strongholds were white and were returned.

Ms Joell was one of just two new black MPs elected for the UBP and she was one of just five black MPs in the entire UBP delegation -- an embarrassing figure for a party which supposedly symbolises integration in Bermuda.

Thus the UBP, if it is to truly reflect the Island's racial make-up, must have a black candidate.

There has been some talk about how the UBP needs to put new faces forward, but it should be obvious to the UBP's central party and to the grassroots members of Paget West that the UBP needs experienced black MPs now. As a result of its Election defeat, the UBP has a plethora of them.

A humbler Jerome Dill would appear to be the best candidate, bringing experience and smarts to the campaign. Senate Opposition Leader Maxwell Burgess is a savvy political street fighter, but would probably be ruled out because the UBP will need him in Hamilton Parish and because of his McDonald's baggage.

The PLP's choice of candidate will also be interesting. George Scott ran well in Warwick West for the PLP in 1993, only to be turned down twice there before the last election.

Undeterred, Mr. Scott ran on his own for the PLP in Paget West, where he did extremely well, adding greatly to the number of votes the PLP candidates had received in 1993.

This suggests that Paget West may not be the stronghold it once was and a concerted effort by the PLP, still riding high from the Election and on the heels of its first Budget, could turn this into a close race or even an Election victory.

Mr. Scott probably deserves another chance, but the PLP can draw on a number of other strong candidates as well, including Government Senate Leader Milton Scott and Senators Michael Scott, Patrice Parris and Cabinet Office chief of staff Sen. David Burch.

The PLP could also play its own race card and run a credible white candidate; with just one white MP in its Parliamentary group, the Progressive Labour Party will always be accused of being a one-race party.

However, the PLP is in an enviable position going into the campaign: it is not expected to win, but has the opportunity to see if its early record in Government will translate into votes in UBP strongholds.