Most of Bermuda is against Independence -- at this time, a Royal Gazette poll reveals.
Fifty-nine percent of voters intending to take part in Government's proposed referendum would say "no'', the survey shows.
Just 26 percent would back cutting ties with Britain.
And 58 percent believe the pros and cons of Independence should be explored at this time.
But the poll underlines how blacks are more drawn to Independence than people of other colours.
Forty percent of blacks intending to vote now favour Independence -- the same number oppose it.
In contrast, 86 percent of other Bermudians -- mostly white -- are against going it alone. Only five percent would say "yes'' in a referendum.
The exclusive survey was carried out for The Royal Gazette during the last week in February by Chicago-based Urban Associates.
And it is aimed at getting current opinions on Independence.
Results -- based on scientifically conducted phone interviews with 484 registered voters -- were also broken down by race, sex, and age.
Other key findings included: Seventy-one percent would vote in a referendum, 14 percent would not; Just 24 percent feel they have enough information to make a decision on Independence; and Men are slightly more likely to favour slashing links with the motherland.
The poll should sound a warning to Premier the Hon. Sir John Swan -- who has pushed the Independence referendum and is known to favour Bermuda going it alone.
But it does demonstrate a shift towards Independence when compared to the last scientifically conducted survey.
In 1988, a Royal Gazette poll revealed a crushing 80 percent of Bermudians against Independence, while just nine percent backed it. Some 500 eligible voters were sampled.
And according to a 1982 survey, 66 percent opposed Independence -- up from 55 percent in a 1977 poll.
In this latest survey, people were not asked how much of a priority Independence should be given when compared with other issues.
The key question was: Currently, are you in favour of Independence for Bermuda.
Of the 71 percent who would vote in a referendum 59 percent answered "no''; 26 percent "yes''; and 16 percent "don't know''.
These results are accurate to within plus or minus 4-6 percent.
Among men, 54 percent were against Independence, while 32 percent showed support. Fourteen percent were undecided.
The comparative figures for women were 63, 19, and 18.
The survey highlighted confusion among people about how Bermuda would be affected by Independence.
An overwhelming 73 percent believed they needed to know more -- before making a decision.
What areas did Bermudians need more information about? Thirty percent of the responses fell in the category of "general information/future''.
Up to 22 percent of them related to "economic/financial/currency''.
Registered voters planning to take part in the referendum were asked the same question.
Forty-two percent replied "general information/future'', and 34 percent "economic/financial/currency''.
Director of Urban Associates Mr. Chuck Lynds explained these two categories.
"We asked open-ended questions, and did not lead people into any particular area.
"A lot of people needed to know more about the overall impact of Independence on Bermuda. They were not specific.
"There were concerns, however, expressed about the implications of Independence on the Bermuda currency.'' Bermudians were also asked whether they believed the pros and cons of Independence should be explored now.
Of those who intended taking part in the referendum 65 percent said "yes''; 30 percent "no''; and five percent "don't know''.
Sixty-seven percent of men were in favour of researching Independence, while 64 percent of women also showed support.
Black people intending to vote were overwhelmingly in favour of such research.
Seventy percent backed it, while just 24 percent were against. Comparative figures for non-blacks were 57 and 40.
Registered voters -- including those not intending to participate in a referendum -- were asked the same question.
Of them, 58 percent said "yes'' to exploring the pros and cons.
Thirty-two percent replied "no'', and 10 percent "don't know''.
Tomorrow, The Royal Gazette will report on how Bermudians of different ages feel about Independence.