over the future of the UBP.

One senior UBP figure forecast a wave of resignations from the party's caucus once Premier the Hon. Sir John Swan stepped down as leader.

And The Royal Gazette understands Transport Minister the Hon. Maxwell Burgess will be heading the queue to quit -- possibly to rejoin the Progressive Labour Party.

The flash point for the resignations would be a push for Tourism Minister the Hon. C.V. (Jim) Woolridge to be made leader, the source said.

With the outcome of the referendum beyond doubt, Mr. Burgess this morning hinted at a mass rebellion against Mr. Woolridge's leadership.

"I will gamble that Mr. Woolridge will be hard-pressed to drive to Government House and tell the Governor Lord Waddington that he commands the majority of the seats in the House of Assembly.

"I can speculate that even if Mr. Woolridge was elected before he got into the car he would no longer control the number of seats in the House.'' Among those known to back Mr. Woolridge as leader are Government backbenchers the Hon. Ann Cartwright DeCouto and Smith's South MP Mr. Trevor Moniz, who have spearheaded the anti-Independence movement.

Mr. Burgess, who has thrown his lot in with Sir John's Independence venture, said he now faced several personal options.

One was to throw his hat into the leadership ring at a UBP caucus meeting -- believed to be set for August 24. Another was to rejoin the PLP.

"It would also be reasonable for people to ask me whether I will sit down in the backbench, sit as an Independent member, or acknowledge the UBP was not all it might have been.'' Meanwhile, the man at the centre of the mounting speculation -- Sir John -- remained tantalisingly elusive throughout the count at Wesley Methodist Church Hall.

Repeated attempts to contact Sir John, the man who has dominated Bermudian politics for more than 13 years, met without success.

Vote may spark exodus from UBP From Page 1 A Royal Gazette reporter went round to his Paget home to find the lights out.

At 2 a.m., his daughter, Alison, answered the telephone to say: "Sir John is sleeping, he obviously doesn't want to speak to you.'' Earlier his son Nicholas said: "My father does not intend to stay up for the count. He will go to sleep. After all he cannot affect the result.'' This morning's developments mark the end of a remarkable chapter in Bermudian politics -- and the end to Sir John's Independence dream.

Throughout his career Sir John, who has hailed nationhood as the cure to Bermuda's racial ills, has continually chased that dream.

For instance in 1986, he was depicted as the driving force behind then Senate President Hugh Richardson's Private Members Bill, which sought to get an Independence referendum.

But he later withdrew support for the bill following a backbench revolt organised by ex-Southampton West MP the Hon. Ralph Marshall.

The outcome foreshadowed his latest bid, launched after Britain's announcement in December, 1993, that the Royal Navy Base, HMS Malabar, would shut down.

Following prolonged outcry over his handling of the issue, Sir John played his final card earlier this month.

He announced he would step down as Premier unless Bermudians said "yes'' to Independence.

His resignation would mean the dissolution of Cabinet so that a successor can name a new Cabinet.

Since Sir John's announcement last Monday, Deputy Premier the Hon. Irving Pearman and Mr. Burgess have ruled themselves out as successors and said they would move to the backbenches for the remaining life of the Parliament, in the event of a "no'' vote.

Youth and Sport Minister the Hon. Pamela Gordon has also ruled herself out, saying she would not serve in a Government that was "right of centre''.

And while Health and Social Services Minister the Hon. Quinton Edness has pledged to follow the course of Mr. Pearman and Mr. Burgess, he has not ruled out succeeding Sir John as Premier.

After the count this morning, Mr. Edness remained defiant about the future of his party.

"The UBP will survive but the resignations will take place. People will do what they said they will do.

"We will have to find a way to heal what has taken place, and find a way to unite.'' A former Government minister, meanwhile, has urged Bermudians not to be alarmed by a recent wave of resignation threats by Cabinet Ministers.

Mr. Marshall, who served as Transport Minister and in several other portfolios during his 30 years in the House of Assembly until his retirement in 1993, said: "This has happened before.'' "These things usually work themselves out.'' Mr. Marshall said a similar split developed in the UBP in the lead-up to the resignation of former Premier the Hon. Sir John Sharpe in 1977.

"I don't think there's been that much of an impact,'' from the promised resignations, Mr. Marshall said. "Life goes on.'' He felt "most Parliamentarians when offered a Cabinet position feel honoured and usually accept them.'' After this morning's "no'' vote, a meeting to choose a new leader will likely be held on August 24.

The UBP source added a special caucus meeting would be held on the day following the referendum, and one week's notice of the meeting to choose a new leader would be given at the regular caucus meeting on Thursday, August 17.

Only UBP MPs could vote in the meeting, which would be chaired by party chairman Sen. Gary Pitman.

Candidates must be sponsored by five MPs, and an MP may only sponsor one candidate. Therefore, with a 21-member Government caucus, the maximum number of candidates is four, and a smaller number is more likely.

Nomination Day would be August 21, three days before the meeting to elect the new leader. And a special caucus meeting would be held between Nomination Day and Election Day to allow candidates to make short speeches and answer questions from caucus.

The Hon. Maxwell Burgess