little ice tonight if there is a leadership vote because it is the party's delegates who actually hold the whip hand.

Around 90 delegates will vote in a secret ballot if Jennifer Smith is challenged, compared with a voting block of just 31 Parliamentarians.

One senior party source estimated 17 backbenchers were against her with only two ordinary MPs in the pro-Smith camp.

And the insider estimated that Ms Smith only had the backing of the bare majority of her cabinet colleagues, with seven supporting her while the other six would like to see a change.

However Ms Smith's support in the Senate is much more solid, with four of the five PLP Senators likely to favour her.

But it is Ms Smith's estimated support in the parishes which could see her notch a comfortable victory if she faces a contest.

The weighting of delegate numbers is done according to membership roles so parishes with a large number of members can send more delegates than those where support is thinner.

The party source estimated she had the backing of delegates of the most important parish -- St. George's with around 18 votes.

Sandys is thought to be split down the middle with around 14 votes.

Hamilton, Arthur Hodgson's home seat, has a similar number of delegates and should give him strong backing while fourth placed Warwick with about 10 votes is thought to be favouring the Premier.

Pembroke with eight or so votes is thought to be pro-Hodgson while Smith's, which has a similar number, is likely to vote the other way with Southampton likely to follow suit.

Tiny Paget with just three votes is thought to be favouring the challenger.