heading southeast at 16 knots.

Forecasters at the Naval Oceanography Command Facility (NOCF), however, have kept Bermuda on a tropical storm watch.

Storms are notoriously unpredictable, and capable of suddenly turning back on their tracks.

A NOCF spokesman said Earl had sharply changed in direction between the morning and evening reports yesterday.

"The storm could surprise us and swing back towards Bermuda.'' Earl is currently dubbed a "potential threat'' to Bermuda, and is expected to come within 200 nautical miles south of the Island early tomorrow.

At 10.30 p.m. last night weather watchers said Earl was likely to track further south of the Island tomorrow.

With maximum sustained winds of 45 knots, gusting to 55 knots, Earl is capable of causing substantial damage should he strike.

Seas inside the reef would increase by approximately 3 to 6 feet, and outside the reef, seas could swell by as much as 16 feet.

The thunderstorms and heavy rains forecast for the Island today stem from a cold front moving through the Bermuda area, and are not related to Earl's activities.

The conditions are expected to improve by the weekend.