Only a tiny minority of United Bermuda Party MPs say they plan to vote "yes'' in the August 15 referendum on Independence.

A survey by The Royal Gazette of 21 Government MPs by also shows that if the referendum results in a "no'' vote, as expected, the leadership of Premier the Hon. Sir John Swan will be undermined.

Several MPs refused to state how they would vote, some of them saying they would not even share that information with constituents. Others appeared to duck the questions, and could not be reached for comment despite repeated attempts.

The Gazette sought to pose two questions to each UBP MP, the first one mirroring the query that will be put to Bermudian voters on August 15: Are you in favour of Independence for Bermuda? and If the referendum results in a "no'' vote, do you believe the Premier should resign? Government backbencher Mr. Trevor Moniz recently said Sir John should step down if most Bermudians voted no to Independence.

Only Sir John, Health and Social Services Minister the Hon. Quinton Edness, Community and Culture Minister the Hon. Wayne Furbert, and Mrs. Grace Bell MP answered "yes'' to the first question.

Mr. Moniz, Government Whip Mr. John Barritt, Dr. David Dyer, Mr. Tim Smith, Mr. Rick Spurling, Education Minister the Hon. Clarence Terceira, Tourism Minister the Hon. C.V. (Jim) Woolridge, and Management and Technology Minister the Hon. Grant Gibbons all said they would vote "no.'' And MP Mr. Harry Soares, while refusing to answer yes or no, admitted that his opposition to Independence at the present time had not changed. The Hon. Ann Cartwright DeCouto was off the Island, but her opposition to Independence is well-known.

Human Affairs Minister the Hon. Jerome Dill, Mr. David Dodwell, Works & Engineering Minister the Hon. Leonard Gibbons, and Finance Minister the Hon.

David Saul all refused to say how they would vote. With the exception of Mr.

Gibbons, they said they would not even share that information with their own constituents.

Several MPs elaborated on why they would be voting "yes'' or "no'', and wanted their comments included with the survey, but space did not allow it in this report.

Despite repeated calls, Transport Minister the Hon. Maxwell Burgess, Youth & Sport Minister the Hon. Pamela Gordon, and Deputy Premier the Hon. Irving Pearman could not be reached for comment.

The second question drew pregnant pauses from more than one MP, with Mr.

Woolridge chuckling before replying, "I wouldn't comment on that.'' But other MPs joined Mr. Moniz in saying a "no'' vote would seriously jeopardise Sir John's leadership.

"I think he'll have a hard time not to'' resign, Dr. Dyer said. "If that's your major plank, or at least it has been for the past 18 months, and then it all gets thrown up in the air, I don't know how he in all good conscience continues to stay there in his seat.'' When asked whether the Premier should resign in the event of a no vote, Mr.

Barritt appeared to suggest that he should. "It's a matter for Sir John in the first instance,'' he said. "Depending on the results, we might reasonably expect a number of honourable things to happen.'' Mr. Spurling said a no vote would show a need for a leadership review. "I do feel that the question of his leadership will be a question that needs to be addressed,'' Mr. Spurling said. "It should be put to a vote at some point following the failure.'' After a long pause, Mr. Soares said it was "premature for us to start hypothesising about what should happen after that date. The main task facing the Country right now is for people to have their say,'' Mr. Soares said. "We will deal with other issues as they come up after that.'' For his part, Sir John said he wanted to see what the vote was first. "Quite frankly, I haven't given a lot of thought to it,'' he said. "Keep one thing in mind. This referendum bill went up with the full concurrence of every UBP member, without exception.

"There's a level of morality attached to this whole thing.'' Dr. Saul said that although the Premier had made Independence a personal issue, it did not necessarily follow that he should resign if the referendum failed.

Mr. Smith declined to comment.

"I would say that was up to him,'' Mr. Dodwell said on the question of Sir John resigning. "That is a personal decision that he should make. My answer would be no.'' Mr. Edness, Mr. Dill, Mr. Gibbons, and Mrs. Bell all quickly said that the Premier should not have to resign if the referendum resulted in a no vote. Mr.

Furbert first said he had no comment, then said: "If there's a no vote, there's no reason for him to resign.'' Dr. Gibbons said it would be up to the Premier and the UBP's Parliamentary Group to decide that.

Dr. Terceira said he could understand why the leadership issue would be raised by caucus members, but "for me to give a clear answer as a member of the Cabinet, I think that ethically I would have a problem.''